|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
22 November 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 246.44 +2.5% for the week
Big move for index driven by U.S. cash eggs which were up 26% for week, and 50%
in two weeks. Without eggs, index up 0.3%. Index now at highest level since end of
July. U.S. corn and soybeans bottoms now seven weeks ago. Neither likely to move
lower with North American harvest essentially complete. Now, that harvest starts to
become smaller as it is consumed.
Agri-Equities Index hits new all time high. For November to date up 5.6% versus
+2.6% for S&P 500 and a measly +1.8% for under performing NASDAQ.
ZTS +18% PAHC +18% ADM +12% JBSAY +9%
Six of the Agri-Equities have made new 52-week highs this month.
15 November 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 240.5 +1.9% for week
Highest level since 22 August. Now six weeks since corn and soybeans bottomed.
Given harvest difficulties and problems with wheat in U.S., Australia, Canada, Russia,
and Ukraine, likelihood of higher prices is good.
Agri-Equities hit new cycle high, and threaten all time high.
With Agri-Commodity prices moving higher
the selling pressure may turn into buying pressure.
For month to date: Agri-Equities + 4.3% vs. S&P 500 +1.4%
PAHC +22% ZTS +16% SPU +16% ADM +9%
8 November 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 234.5 -0.1% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 33% Over Sold
Now 7 weeks since index bottomed. 5 weeks since U.S. corn and soybean prices
bottomed. That is encouraging news. Attention is now turning to Monday’s WASDE
report. While some will focus on any upward revision for U.S. corn and soybean
harvest, attention is shifting to demand. Yes, U.S. corn and soybean harvest is
large, but no more will be harvested till next year. Additionally, some attention
shifting to how much LESS corn will be produced in the U.S. & Brazil next year.
Agri-Equities having another good month. Agri-Equities are at a new cycle high! For
November to date, Agri-Equities +1.6% versus S&P 500 +1% & NASDAQ +0%.
With grain pricing having bottomed, these results are as expected. Month thus far:
PAHC +9% ZTS +8% ADM +8% DAR +7% DE +5%
REMEMBER, the world has to eat, it does not have to have a Facebook page!
1 November 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 236.3 +0.7% for the week.
Signal Oscillator: 32% Over Sold
Bottom for A-F Price Index week of 19 September. Now up for six weeks.
U.S. corn and soybean prices both rose during the week. Highest level since about
middle of September. For months news has been dominated by size of the U.S.
harvest, but that news is fading. News now turning to how much of that harvest not
done, and reports of weather issues in Australia, Brazil, Russia, and India. Grains, as a
group, are strengthening. Given the number of issues that are going to impact the next
South American harvest and drop in U.S. corn acres in Spring our positive view on
prices for 2015 is improving.
Agri-Equities had a good October. On average up 2.7% versus +2% for S&P 500.
Agri-Equities are not impacted by all the problems facing companies like SODA,
AMZN, TWTR, FB, et al. JBSAY +19%, PAHC +16%, AGU +10%, BG +5%
We will send out November issue of Agri-Food Value View on Monday.
25 October 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 234.7 -0.6% for the week
Signal Oscillator: 29%, returning to over sold.
Index declined in the past week, but that was due entirely to U.S. butter(-10%) and U.
S. hogs(-9%). Excluding those two item index would have been up 0.6%. Both U.S.
corn and soybeans were up 3% for the week. Bottom for corn and soybeans was,
thus far, in week ending 3 October. Weather around the world not cooperating. Is
causing problems in Russia with wheat planting and in Brazil with soybean plantings.
Wild speculation has return to trading in the techno/junk trading on the NASDAQ.
Amazon was the big failure of the week. One-by-one the techno/junk is having
trouble. For October to date 53% of the Agri-Equities are performing better than the
market. For October: PAHC +7%, AGU +4%, JBSAY +4%, DE +4%, Wilmar
Interim Comments emailed on Friday. Did web cast this past week for financialsense.
com and financialsurvivalnetwork.com
Most was on Gold though latter did cover Ag briefly.
AGRI-FOOD VALUE VIEW CORN COMMENTS
We are doing significant research and writing on the topic of corn prices in the U.S.
That work is now appearing in our newsletters. After the embargo periods ends
we will publish them here. Use this link(Updated 10 September):