The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

is the premier newsletter on Agri-Food investing.
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Disclaimer: All performance numbers cited are
hypothetical and based on paper portfolios. They do
not reflect actual transactions or portfolios. They
certainly do not predict likely future performance.

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:

25 April 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   222.6   0.3%
Signal Oscillator: 2%   Extremely Over Sold

Markets continued to be driven this past week by extremes in psychology. Funds
HATE Agri-Commodities and LOVE a handful of NASDAQ techno junk.
That extreme situation drove down some Agri-Commodities. Example, oat prices
were driven down 8%. In contrast, cotton +5% hogs +4%   soybeans flat

This extreme in psychology can continue for a while,
but it is moving toward a massive turning point.

Agri-Equities hit an all time high on Friday’s close. For month-to-date: Agri-Equities   
+4.5%   S&P 500   +2.4%   SPU +25%   JBSAY +20%   MON +5%

We also recorded a webcast for
Can be heard at their site.

Interim Comments emailed out Friday.

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18 April 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   223.2 +0.2% for week
Signal Oscillator:   5%  Over Sold

Big news for Agri-Commodities was with the dollar, which has broken down
out of a parabolic rise. Dollar now destined to retrace at least 50% of advance.
Falling dollar will remove a major negative from Agri-Commodity prices.
For the week:   Sugar +3%   Palm oil +3%  Hogs +3%   Butter +3%
Broilers +3%   Both corn and soybeans up for week. Loser was wheat  -8%

Agri-Equities were down for the week, but certainly did better than the
collapsing popular stocks.  For the year-to-date Agri-Equities +4.6% versus S&P
500 +1.1%  NASDAQ +4.2%    For April-to-date Agri-Equities +2.6%
and 80% performing better than market.  For April-to-date: JBSAY +17%
SPU +8%   BG +4% MON +4%

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11 April 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   227.8   -2.7% for week   
Signal Oscillator:   33%   Moving to over sold.

Index had been over bought through week of 3 April, and was due for a pause.
Nearly all of the decline for the index last week was due to eggs, -34% for week,
which are in a seasonally weak period.

Last week Agri-Commodities traded as dollar substitutes rather than as
commodities. Street returned from Easter holidays ready to try another rally for the
dollar. While Agri-Commodities are influenced by the value of the dollar,
that relationship is not on daily basis.
Second week that U.S. exported more than a million bushel of corn.
WASDE released, and nothing really important in it.
For week: Hogs +7%   Broilers +2%   Cotton +2%

Agri-Food Stock Index hit a new high last week. For the month-to-date:   
Agri-Equities +3.4%   S&P 500 +1.7%   JBSAY +21%   MON +7%   KUB +5%   
SYT +4%   SPU +4%

Agri-Food Value View Interim Comments to be emailed on Tuesday, 14 April.

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28 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index: 228.2   +0.0% for week
Signal Oscillator: 81%   Over Bought, and due to rest.

Will U.S. corn hit $4.5 on Thursday? On Tuesday, 31 March, USDA will release
report on prospective planting of corn and soybeans acres by U.S. farmers.
Corn prices have developed strong resistance at the $4 level.
Popular resistance, and support, levels are taken out with a vengeance. Note that
CME grains do not trade on Friday as it is Good Friday. Should the estimated corn
acreage to be planted show a larger reduction than trade estimates,
traders may move to cover shorts rather than hold them over a three day holiday.

For the week: Butter +4%   Eggs +3%   Hogs -4% (Why do they keep producing
them?)  Sugar -4% (Price of sugar is going to zero.)

Agri-Equities are slightly weaker than the market(S&P 500) this month.
However, for year-to-date Agri-Equities +2.4% & S&P 500 +0.1%
For the month:   SPU +14%   CALM +4%

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21 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   228.8   +0.8% for the week
Signal Oscillator:   66%, and rising
Last buy signal:   7 March

Spring is slowly unfolding and the dollar collapsed this past week. Both factors are
helping Agri-Commodity prices. Attention is focused on the USDA Prospective
Planting report due 31 March. How much less corn acreage and how much more
soybean acreage? Of less interest, but more important is
that most forecasts are going to be too optimistic on yields.

For the week: US eggs +8%,   US wheat +5%(forecasts were too optimistic on
yields), US hogs -5%(but one broker now a bull on hog prices)

With the FOMC demonstrating the leadership qualities and decision making
capabilities of kindergarten students on a playground, traders played enthusiastically in
stock markets. Agri-Equities generally are not trading stocks so they are lagging for
the month though 53% of them are performing better than the market year-to-date.
For month-to-date: SPU +9%  CALM +3%   ZTS +3%   JBSAY +1%

On Friday a UN agency, WHO, announced that one study suggested that
glyphosate, Roundup, was probably a carcinogen if used improperly. We generally
doubt anything coming out of a UN agency. Unbiased science is not their main goal.
Further, the study was done in a French lab which casts further doubts on the
conclusions. That said, the nutty food groupies on the web and the environmental
wackos will run with this one. We have advocated SYT rather than MON for
sometime, and this reinforces that view. See this article for more:

7 March 2015
Agri-Food Price Index:   227.6   +0.0% for week
Signal Oscillator:  32%   Weekly Oscillator:   54%

With signal oscillator moving above 20%,
a Buy signal on the Agri-Food Price Index occurred this week.  

Dollar Bubble still a problem, but generally speaking bottoms are being put in place
for most Agri-Commodities. Exception may be U.S. soybeans. For the week: Eggs
+15%   Butter + 3%   Eggs + 2%   Loser: U.S. soybeans  - 5%

Stock market had serious problems last week, and is preparing to enter a bear
market. Agri-Equities tend to have a rough time at the beginning of the month.
Month-to-date: Agri-Equities  - 2.3%   
For year-to-date: Agri-Equities + 2.6%   S&P 500 + 0.6%
For month-to-date: SPU + 9%   Wilmar +0.1%

21 February 2015
Agri-Food Price Index:   226.1  -0.1% for week.
Signal Oscillator:  14%
Weekly Oscillator:   17%
A-F Price Index set up for a buy signal.
Lat short-term low:   3 weeks ago

USDA released latest forecast for U.S. corn and soybean acreage.
Both are expected to below last year. But, they
are too optimistic on U.S. corn acreas. Now 20 weeks since
U.S. corn prices bottom. China price ~9% a bushel.
Broilers +3%  Hogs +2.5%  Cotton +2%   Soybeans +1%
First time in six weeks hog prices rose.

Equity markets are in a euphoric and dangerous state.
Month to date:  Agri-Equities   +5%
Tier One Agri-Equitie hit a new, all time high.
For month:  PAHC +26%  AGCO +16%  SYT +9%

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