|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
27 August 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 215.17
1 Week % Change: - 1.2%
4 Week % Change: + 2.1%
52 Week % Change: - 4.5%
200 Day Moving Average: 218.64 -3.47
52-Week High: 232.29 - 6%
52-Week Low: 210.19 +4%
Last week was miserable as chicken little, aka teenage commodity traders,
took control of the grain markets. Sentiment was bearish as traders ignored
any good news and fixated on negative news. In reading some end of week
comments all sense of analysis was discarded. That prices are going down is
the only thought. Normally reasonable commentators lost all sense of reason,
screaming about $2 corn as a possibility.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the U.S. corn harvest at 14.728 billion
bushels versus last USDA estimate of 15.153 billion bushel. That difference
of 425 million bushels is significant. When last WASDE was released many
suspected that USDA estimate was too high. All we can really say from this
is that likely that future WASDEs, next on Monday, 12 September, will likely
lower estimate of corn harvest. Also ignored by the way was that the world
outside the U.S. continues to consume more soybeans than produced.
US exports sales of new crop in last reported week for corn +10%
and soybeans +13%
Last week was not a good week for equities. For the month-to-date the S&P 500
is now in the negative. Agri-Equities were punished for the action in the grains.
Now down 1% for month. For month: JBSAY +11% SYT +10%
CALM +5% MON + 1%
20 August 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 217.86
1 Week % Change: + 1.8%
4 Week % Change: + 1.3%
52 Week % Change: - 5.3%
200 Day Moving Average: 218.91 -1.06
52-Week High: 232.29
52-Week Low: 210.19
Big event of past two weeks seems to be the major reversal in corn futures
that occurred on 12 August after WASDE was released. After plunging to a
new low, the futures reversed and actually closed up a few cents. We now assign
a 65% probability to U.S. corn having put in a bottom. However, nothing may be
confirmed till September WASDE. Soybeans are a little trickier, put thus far
end of week U.S. cash prices had a bottom four weeks ago. In futures, on both
Thursday and Friday the futures reversed off lows. We assign a 55% probability
that Thursday, 18th, was the low.
Last week US cash eggs + 28%, US cash corn + 3.5%, US cash soybeans + 2.5%
US$ Malaysian palm oil + 2.2% Surprisingly, US cash sorghum was up 1.7%
for first up week in 9 weeks!
Big story in Agri-Equities last week DE, +13% on Friday. Earnings were
well above the average estimate. Sometime analysts do not realize how
good DE is at managing its business. AGCO followed DE higher, up almost 7%
on Friday. For month-to-date: Agri-Equities +0.7% vs. S&P 500 +0.5%
DE + 12% JBSAY +6% CALM +4%(be careful with this one)
ZTS +4% AGCO +4%
Note on DE that stock closed at $87.32 with high on Friday of $88.08.
52-week high is $88.20. If DE makes a new high could draw more buyers,
and could make whole Agri-Equity sector look better.
6 August 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 210.27
1 Week % Change: - 0.2%
4 Week % Change: - 8.0%
52 Week % Change: - 10.0%
200 Day Moving Average: 219.33 -9.06
52-Week High: 233.33
52-Week Low: 210.27
Pain of the last month did seem to dissipate as the past week moved to a close.
35% of Agri-Commodity prices rose last week versus 12% two weeks ago. As
the week opened average Agri-Commodity prices were off more than 1%, but
finished the week off only 0.2%. Despite denial by some, export sales of
soybeans, wheat, and corn continue strong. Entire Agri-Commodity complex
deeply oversold with signal oscillator hitting 0% last week. Cotton hit another
new 52-week high. World sugar up, and near the high. WASDE is due Friday,
and doubt it can have sufficient food in it to satisfy the intensely negative mood
of corn and soybean bears.
Beginning of the month is usually slow in Agri-Equities as market bulls still want
to get money in their techie favorites. AGCO was one of the more interesting this
week. While sales were still down, significant signs of bottom in Agri-Equipment
sales appeared in report. We like MON, FMC, and JBSAY. Month-to-date
53% of Agri-Equities performing better than market. JBSAY +4%
CALM +4% PAHC +2% FMC +1.5%
Posted a new web cast at top of page. Most of it is on Gold, but Ag at the end.
24 July 2016
For our comments this week see sample of Interim Comments
which are available in green box.
9 July 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 228.53
1 Week % Change: - 0.7
4 Week % Change: +1.3%
52 Week % Change: -6.2%
200 Day Moving Average: 220.17 +0.16
From Low(18 Dec 15) +9%
Brexit hurt, though we know not why. NO direct connection exists between
England leaving the EU and demand for Agri-Foods. If any does, it is so far
to the right in the decimals as to be undetectable. Psychology and margin
squeeze on traders was the most likely culprit in causing the collapse of
prices such as corn.
On Thursday were first hints of an improvement. Cash prices strengthened
materially on Friday. A-F Price Index had been down almost 1.8% for week,
but ended week only down 0.7%. While WASDE is due Tuesday with possibility
of less than good news, US corn export sales are 31% from a year ago. Corn
oscillator is at 0%, a deeply oversold condition.
Agri-Equities have been beaten hard this month as Brexit rolled through the markets.
However, signs of improvement began late Thursday. With Agri-Food prices moving
higher for the rest of year they should again do better than the market. For month-to-
date: PAHC +6.5% CALM +3% ZTS +2.2%
25 June 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 230.94
1 Week % Change: - 0.6%
4 Week % Change: +6.0%
52 Week % Change: -5.4%
200 Day Moving Average: 220.01
From Low(18 Dec 15) +10%
Only thing we know for sure today is that most did not enjoy last week, especially
Friday. Now that England has voted for the end of the world, everyone seemed to
want to sell something. As we do not expect the world will actually end due to the
Brexit, we suspect people will keep eating. Brexit will not alter the amount of
soybeans imported by China by an amount sufficient to change a decimal.
We have updated the sample newsletters posted above. Interim Comments
is an especially important read. Shows the extremely bullish case
developing in Agri-Foods.
US corn prices were hit especially hard last week. Part of reason for that was corn
was already correcting. Corrections involve two forces, price and time.
Price portion of the correction is probably at or near completion. Some time
is now required to build the base, and that may be about three weeks.
Our stocks participated fully in Friday’s sell off. Did have one stock up, CALM.
And yes, that bothers us. However, out of every correction comes another
market. Rarely is it the same stock groups. For example, bank stocks are
now dead money. Leadership of NASDAQ 100 is going to experience more
selling. Agri-Equities are a group likely to ultimately benefits as they do most
of their business in driven by Asia-Pacific arena, not the EU.
Link to our latest investment results summary:
Investment Summary 26 June
18 June 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 232.29
1 Week % Change: +3.0%
4 Week % Change: +6.6%
52 Week % Change: -0.6%
200 Day Moving Average: 219.85
From Low(18 Dec 15) +10%
While soybeans have been receiving a lot of attention, corn is the really
exciting story. With US cash corn at a new 52-week high and up 49% from
the September 2014 low, US cash corn is in a bull market. Most important the
strength in corn and soybeans has extremely strong positive implications for
cash flow of farmers.
Agri-Food Price Index was up strongly last week. Part of that strength was
the beginning of a recovery in US cash eggs prices which had fallen by 90+%.
For the week: US cash eggs +50% US cash butter +8% US cash corn +4%
US cash sorghum +4%
With equity markets continuing to have problems, especially in the favorites
that dominate the NASDAQ 100, hard for any stock group to do as well as
we would like. That admitted, Agri-Equities continue to do better than the market.
For the month to date: Agri-Equities -1.2% NASDAQ Composite -3.0%
DE +5% JBSAY +4% AGU +4% SYT +2%
Our latest webcast. 3 Aug 2016
To hear our latest webcast use this link:
Mostly on Gold, but Ag at end
|PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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|PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
|PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.