|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
17 May 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 235.0 +3.1% for week
Signal Oscillator: 67% Neutral
Buy Signal: Week ended 12 May
Agri-Food Price Index up 6% in three weeks. For the week: Eggs +37%
Wheat +7% Feeder Steers +5% Hogs +4%
Impact of bird flue so far minimum on shell eggs. Panic buying of broken eggs, for
food products, is moving those prices up. Major resistance for U.S. corn price
is $4. Pressures building to move up through that level.
$4 will then become floor, support, for U.S. corn.
Agri-Food Stock Index up 7.8% month-to-date to hit a new all time high.
For month to date: Agri-Equities +7.8% S&P 500 +1.8% NASDAQ +2.1%
SYT +31% CALM +23% PAHC +15% DAR +12% ADM +9%
9 May 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 228.0 +2.0% for week
Signal Oscillator: 33%
Weekly Oscillator: 84%
Buy signal triggered.
Last week Agri-Food Price Index rose 2%, one of the strongest weeks in years.
That action moved signal oscillator up through 20% creating a buy signal on
the Agri-Food Price Index. We strive to use cash prices where available.
So, despite some flailing in the grain futures, the cash markets are strengthening.
26+ million chickens/turkeys now casualties of bird flu, and likely to go higher.
Not yet impacting prices of eggs or broilers, but both in a seasonal rise.
For the week: Eggs +13% Butter +7% Hogs +5% Sugar +4%
Agri-Equities are having a good month, a good year-to-date, and have had
a good year. Currently index is at a new all time high. For the month-to-date:
Agri-Equities +4.5% S&P 500 +1.5% 60% of Agri-Equities outperforming
the market. Big news last week was MON’s bid for SYT. While SYT
will need to spurn the suitor initially, in the end MON will sweeten bid
and SYT will then accept the proposal. That does seem to be best guess.
We added FMC to our list with publication of the May newsletter.
For month-to-date: SYT +28% KUB +16% JBSAY +8% PAHC +7%
Interim Comments will be emailed on Friday.
25 April 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 222.6 0.3%
Signal Oscillator: 2% Extremely Over Sold
Markets continued to be driven this past week by extremes in psychology. Funds
HATE Agri-Commodities and LOVE a handful of NASDAQ techno junk.
That extreme situation drove down some Agri-Commodities. Example, oat prices
were driven down 8%. In contrast, cotton +5% hogs +4% soybeans flat
This extreme in psychology can continue for a while,
but it is moving toward a massive turning point.
Agri-Equities hit an all time high on Friday’s close. For month-to-date: Agri-Equities
+4.5% S&P 500 +2.4% SPU +25% JBSAY +20% MON +5%
We also recorded a webcast for www.financialsurvivalnetwork.com
Can be heard at their site.
Interim Comments emailed out Friday.
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18 April 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 223.2 +0.2% for week
Signal Oscillator: 5% Over Sold
Big news for Agri-Commodities was with the dollar, which has broken down
out of a parabolic rise. Dollar now destined to retrace at least 50% of advance.
Falling dollar will remove a major negative from Agri-Commodity prices.
For the week: Sugar +3% Palm oil +3% Hogs +3% Butter +3%
Broilers +3% Both corn and soybeans up for week. Loser was wheat -8%
Agri-Equities were down for the week, but certainly did better than the
collapsing popular stocks. For the year-to-date Agri-Equities +4.6% versus S&P
500 +1.1% NASDAQ +4.2% For April-to-date Agri-Equities +2.6%
and 80% performing better than market. For April-to-date: JBSAY +17%
SPU +8% BG +4% MON +4%
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11 April 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 227.8 -2.7% for week
Signal Oscillator: 33% Moving to over sold.
Index had been over bought through week of 3 April, and was due for a pause.
Nearly all of the decline for the index last week was due to eggs, -34% for week,
which are in a seasonally weak period.
Last week Agri-Commodities traded as dollar substitutes rather than as
commodities. Street returned from Easter holidays ready to try another rally for the
dollar. While Agri-Commodities are influenced by the value of the dollar,
that relationship is not on daily basis.
Second week that U.S. exported more than a million bushel of corn.
WASDE released, and nothing really important in it.
For week: Hogs +7% Broilers +2% Cotton +2%
Agri-Food Stock Index hit a new high last week. For the month-to-date: Agri-
Equities +3.4% S&P 500 +1.7% JBSAY +21% MON +7% KUB +5% SYT
+4% SPU +4%
Agri-Food Value View Interim Comments to be emailed on Tuesday, 14 April.
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28 March 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 228.2 +0.0% for week
Signal Oscillator: 81% Over Bought, and due to rest.
Will U.S. corn hit $4.5 on Thursday? On Tuesday, 31 March, USDA will release
report on prospective planting of corn and soybeans acres by U.S. farmers.
Corn prices have developed strong resistance at the $4 level.
Popular resistance, and support, levels are taken out with a vengeance. Note that
CME grains do not trade on Friday as it is Good Friday. Should the estimated corn
acreage to be planted show a larger reduction than trade estimates,
traders may move to cover shorts rather than hold them over a three day holiday.
For the week: Butter +4% Eggs +3% Hogs -4% (Why do they keep producing
them?) Sugar -4% (Price of sugar is going to zero.)
Agri-Equities are slightly weaker than the market(S&P 500) this month.
However, for year-to-date Agri-Equities +2.4% & S&P 500 +0.1%
For the month: SPU +14% CALM +4%
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