|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
18 October 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 236.1 -1.0% for week
Signal Oscillator: 34% Slightly Oversold
Butter prices finally declined from extreme, falling 29% for week.
Excluding butter, the index would have been +0.8% for the week. US corn and
soybean prices have now been up for 2 weeks. Real issue now is what happens
in the Spring. How much will U.S. corn acreage shrink,
and how much smaller will be global corn crop?
While equity markets are in deep trouble, Agri-Equities are holding up well. For
month to date, Agri-Equities -3.0% versus S&P 500 -4.3% and NASDAQ -5.0%.
For the month, 73% of the Agri-Equities are performing better than the market.
JBS +16% PAHC+10%
Scheduled to do web casts for finnancialsense.com and financialsurvivalnetwork.com
this week. Both should be posted on their web sites Wednesday or later.
11 October 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 238.5 +0.9% for the week
Signal Oscillator: 28% Weekly Oscillator: 60%
Oscillator gave a buy signal for the week.
These buy signals mean that Agri-Food Price Index
is likely to rise in the weeks ahead.
WASDE released Friday. While the report was about as expected, the higher
estimate for corn combined with the wide spread negative tone to financial markets
sent futures lower. However, for the week most Agri-Commodity prices, we follow
16, were up.
Collapse of equity markets this past week had been developing for weeks. Few
stocks could escape the carnage. For the month to date, Agri-Equities -2.5% versus
S&P 500 -3.4%. For month to date, 47% of Agri-Equities performing better than
market. JBSAY +15% CALM +5% PAHC +5%
Sample newsletters available here updated. Corn comments will be updated
this coming week. Interim Comments to go out on Tuesday.
4 October 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 160.31 +0.2% for week
Signal Oscillator: 8% Weekly Oscillator: 17%
While pessimism on corn and soybeans remains high, remainder of
Agri-Commodities are starting to reflect individual conditions.
For example, Canada slashed forecasts for wheat and canola with a BIG knife.
October newsletter mailed on Friday. In it we continue our extensive discussion of
corn and soybeans. Our estimate is that 20+% of U.S. farmers will lose money
planting corn. The U.S. price of corn for those farmers is below the
cost of fuel, seed, etc. to plant the corn. On average, U.S. corn and soybeans farms
will lose money next year at current spot price of those grains. As a consequence, we
forecast that U.S. corn production will fall by more than 10% in calendar 2015.
Under these conditions corn prices must rise next year.
While October is only three market days old,
40% of Agri-Equities are beating the market.
20 September 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 234.6 -1.3% for week!
Index has now been deeply oversold for 10 weeks. That level of negative
psychology unprecedented. Corn and soybeans hammered this past week.
Reworked U.S. corn forecast for 2015-16, which will be planted in Spring 2015 and
harvested Fall 2015. We project that U.S. corn harvest will decline by 10+%, or
more. Using December contract price, almost 10% of U.S. farmers cannot, repeat
cannot, cover the cost of planting corn. Reduction in corn plantings next year could be
more dramatic than decline we are forecasting.
Month to date Agri-Equities, on average, are beating the market. Agri-Equities
+0.5% vs. +0.4% for S&P 500. 40% of Agri-Equities beating the market.
PAHC +19% CALM +15% ZTS +5% ADM +4% Was a story reporting that an
analyst believes that Bayer could bid for ZTS. While possible,
not like to happen any time soon.
13 September 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 237.6 -1.1% for week.
Release of WASDE last week was painful for grain markets. BUT, from this report
on through harvest the grain crop should only gets smaller. 60% of the time corn
harvest is below that forecast in the September WASDE. Strong possibility that last
week was an important selling climax for the grains. While the Agri-Food Price Index
was off 1.1%, the median price change was +0.8%. That means half of the
Agri-Commodities we follow, 16 in all, rose in price more than 0.8%.
Agri-Equities were not immune to the weakness in equity markets last week. Those
least exposed to low grain prices have done well this month, and we expect them to
continue doing so. For the month, PAHC +4% and ZTS +2%. Both ADM(+ 1%)
and BG (+2%) should benefit from large volumes of grains and low prices. JBSAY is
down this month and investors should take advantage of that weakness.
6 September 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 240.1 +0.3% for week
Low for index was week of 15 Aug. Low for corn and soybeans was week
of 1 August. Those lows were tested on Wed-Thu, and held! That those three
did not break to new lows this past week is a positive development.
WASDE to be released on Thursday. Will bears be fed?
Agri-Equities essentially unchanged thus far in September(-0.1%).
PAHC +4% CALM +2% ZTS +3%
AGRI-FOOD VALUE VIEW CORN COMMENTS
We are doing significant research and writing on the topic of corn prices in the U.S.
That work is now appearing in our newsletters. After the embargo periods ends
we will publish them here. Use this link(Updated 10 September):
|Most recent webcast for financialsurvival.com
Listen to it at this link: FinSurNet Link