The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

is the premier newsletter on Agri-Food investing.
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Disclaimer: All performance numbers cited are
hypothetical and based on paper portfolios. They do
not reflect actual transactions or portfolios. They
certainly do not predict likely future performance.

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:

21 February 2015
Agri-Food Price Index:   226.1  -0.1% for week.
Signal Oscillator:  14%
Weekly Oscillator:   17%
A-F Price Index set up for a buy signal.
Lat short-term low:   3 weeks ago

USDA released latest forecast for U.S. corn and soybean acreage.
Both are expected to below last year. But, they
are too optimistic on U.S. corn acreas. Now 20 weeks since
U.S. corn prices bottom. China price ~9% a bushel.
Broilers +3%  Hogs +2.5%  Cotton +2%   Soybeans +1%
First time in six weeks hog prices rose.

Equity markets are in a euphoric and dangerous state.
Month to date:  Agri-Equities   +5%
Tier One Agri-Equitie hit a new, all time high.
For month:  PAHC +26%  AGCO +16%  SYT +9%

Still offering a free three month trial subscription.

Link to our latest web cast which discussed
Peak Food can be found at top right of page.

15 February 2015
Agri-Food Price Index:   226.44   -0.8% for week
Signal Oscillator:   10%   Oversold
Weekly Oscillator:   11%   Oversold
Last short-term low:   2 weeks ago

In the January issue we enticed our subscribers to read an introductory
article on Peak Food. That writing was based on important and comprehensive
research onfood production. In future issues of Agri-Food Value View we will be
talking more about Peak Food. This may be some of the most important research
we have every discussed. Peak Food is such an important topic we
want as many investors as possible to received this information.
Therefore, we will be doing something not done in years, offering a free
three month trial subscription. If you would like to receive a free three month
trial subscription, write

To read the introductory article on Peak Food use the follow link.
Peak Food Intro  

7 February 2015

gri-Food Price Index:   228.2    +1.8% for week
Signal Oscillator:   12%   Oversold
Weekly oscillator:  19%   

Weekly oscillator has now turned up and through signal oscillator. Those are
the pre-conditions necessary for a buy signal on the A-F Price Index. For week:  
Palm oil +13%   U.S. corn +6%   U.S. sorgham +4%  Prices were aided by
weakening of the U.S. dollar. Prices generally improve as February unfolds.
Attention will start to shift to how much less corn acreage will be planted
in the U.S. Could be a surprise to price bears.

Equity markets traded violently on any news on Greece and price of oil. The teenage
traders were running wild. Month to date:   Agri-Equities +1.5%  For year to date
Agri-Equities +1.1%, outperforming both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.  For month
to date: AGCO +13%   SYT +5%   DE +4%  

NEWS to watch. U.S. West coast ports are shutdown through Monday
due to a work slow down by unions. Cannot afford full wages with little work being
done. This situation could seriously hinder export of grains

Coming in the March issue:  Peak Food

24 January 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   225.8   -1% for week
Signal Oscillator:   0% (for second week) DEEPLY oversold

Appreciation of dollar, depreciation of foreign currencies, had a dramatic impact on
Agri-Commodity prices this past week. We explained this in some detail in Interim
Comments emailed out of Saturday. For example, despite the Canadian dollar price
of canola rising, U.S. dollar price of Canadian canola has fallen. That falling price is
pressuring U.S. soybean prices. In short, about 50% of
the drop by the A-F Price Index was due to the appreciating dollar.

We continue to be more positive on U.S. corn prices due to at least a 10% drop in
Brazilian and U.S. corn acreage this year.

For the week: Eggs +17%   U.S. chicken prices fell 6%. Those prices rise in
anticipation of U.S. Super Bowl, a day on which massive quantities of chicken wings
are consumed. Buying for that event was completed,
and prices fell as they normally do.

On average, Agri-Equities +0.2% for month to date versus S&P 500 -0.3%. 53% of
Agri-Equities performing better than market month to date.  Month to date:  SPU
+15% AGU +10%   We like Wilmar, DAR, AGCO, SYT, and JBS.

17 January 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   228.12   -1.1% for week
Signal Oscillator:   0%   Deeply over sold

All markets, with the exception of Gold, suffered last week. On Thursday-Friday
some improvement was observed. Eggs +5%   Sugar +3% Corn and soybeans down
for week. Corn oscillator at 39% so it is not yet over sold. Generally speaking, corn
should move higher while soybeans are “price capped”.

Is the dollar rally over? The massive losses inflicted on some investors by the Swiss
change of policy might be the beginning of the end for dollar’s rally. That would help
demand for U.S. grains, where the greatest short-term surpluses exist.

Agri-Equities are down for the month to date, -1.1%, but are doing better than S&P
500, -1.9%, and the NASDAQ, -2.1%. 60% of the Agri-Equities have performed
better than the market this month. AGU +6%   SYT +4%   ZTS +3%   BG +1%   
Improved relative strength may begin to draw money to the group.

Scheduled for web cast on
on Monday afternoon, 19 January

10 January 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   230.55    +0% for week
Signal Oscillator:   3%    Deeply over sold & poised to develop a buy signal.

Year end holidays had shut down activity in the Midwestern U.S.  Bids had been
weak as buyers had little or no interest. That situation seemed to change on Thursday.
Agri-Food Price Index had been negative early in the week, but ended flat.
For the week:   Soybeans +5%   Broilers +4% Sugar +5%   Beef +4%

Trade fixated on USDA WASDE to be released on Monday. Expectations are that
the report might be slightly more bullish than bearish. Monsanto reported for the
quarter ending November.
Corn seed sales(in dollars) were down 12% from a
year ago on weakness in South America. That suggests the cutback in corn
acres is going to far greater than many expect, and is positive for corn prices.
But, soybean seed sales were up 48%.

Noone enjoyed the ride in the U.S. stock market last week as it
was totally driven by traders running it down, up, and down.
For month to date:   Agri-Equities  -1.1%   S&P 500 -0.7%
AGCO +7%   PAHC +3%   DE +2%

Is your portfolio ready for PEAK FOOD?
Agri-Food Value View is the path to understanding
and profiting from
PEAK FOOD.  Recent web cast on Peak Food
 Peak Food