|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
20 December 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 240.5 -2.2% for week
Signal Oscillator: 65% Slightly over bought, but moving down.
Seasonal factors were strong this past week. Activity in all markets
lower as buyers are mostly done till the new year. For example,
U.S. cash butter -15% and eggs -14%.
However, relative strength of U.S. cash corn continues to improve. Now 11 weeks
since U.S. cash corn hit bottom. How fast it might move up is now the question.
February, when North America starts to unfreeze, will give an indication of
strength of exports. U.S. dollar beginning to be a serious problem. Teenage traders
have pushed it to an extreme, and that is starting to make U.S
Agri-Exports non competitive in some markets.
Runaway stock markets such as we had last week focus on the most
liquid stocks that can be easily run up. Agri-Equities are not part of that group.
For month to date: AGCO +7% DE +4%.
SYT is stock to look at. Has been held back by lack of Chinese approval for a GM
corn widely planted in the U.S. While official approval announcement has not been
made by China, Chinese official meeting with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture said that
approval had been granted.
Interim Comments to be sent out on Wednesday, 24 December.
13 December 2014
NEWS FLASH: U.S. cash corn moved above $4.
That move may not have been big, $4.03 on our cash market estimate, but it was
important. The $4 level was major psychological resistance. Markets had been
pushing on it, but a news catalyst was needed, and that arrived.
Ukraine’s exports of corn may be 20% less than expected due to conflict in that
nation. Prices are not going to “fly up”,
but we likely have a start on moving higher next year.
For the week, Agri-Food Price Index: 245.96 -0.1%
Signal Oscillator: 98% Over Bought
Risk in equity markets was reduced last week, particularly in the U.S. Stock markets
bulls now are on the defensive. Agri-Equities were not able to escape the selling. For
month to date, Agri-Equities: -2.8% S&P 500: -3.2% NASDAQ: -2.9%
Fundamentals for Agri-Equities should add some support relative to markets. For
example, strong volumes on high demand, improving price picture, lower oil prices,
and they are under owned. Our preferences at this time are for Wilmar, AGCO,
DAR, and SYT
Interim Comments will go out on Sunday, 14 December.
6 December 2014
AGRI-EQUITIES HIT ALL TIME HIGH!
First Tier Agri-Equities hit an all time high at end of November,
and this week did so again. Our composite index of Agri-Equities, which has over
time included some high risk small stocks, also hit a new all time high this week.
This performance, in an era when the Street hates commodities,
is an indication of the solid fundamental of the Agri-Companies.
For December to date, admittedly a short period: AG Equities +0.9% S&P 500 +0.
4% NASDAQ -0.2% SPU +6% PAHC +5% AGCO +4% DE +4%
Agri-Food Price Index for week ending 5 December: 246. 3 -0.0%
Signal oscillator: 99% Remains over bought, suggesting quite period
for remainder of year to unwind over bought condition.
U.S. feeder steers and egg prices at new 90-week highs.
U.S. corn prices have made a bottom, now nine weeks ago. Corn prices have moved
up in relative strength, giving us high confidence that the bottom was real. Too early to
guess U.S. corn prices in December 2015, but SWAG would be $4.50+.
29 November 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 246.4 -0.0% for the week
Signal Oscillator: 100% Over Bought; Index may mark time
for remainder of year to unwind this over bought condition.
Now 10 weeks since index bottomed. Both U.S. corn and soybeans up for the weak.
8 weeks since both bottomed. Now concern growing on wheat.
Possible winter kill in the U.S. and Russia. Russia warning it may limit exports next
year to protect domestic consumption. Last time this happened wheat prices rose
dramatically. Dollar appreciation, which has clearly been over done, is hurting prices
of some commodities. For the week: Wheat +5%.
U.S. eggs +7% to a record high.
Agri-Equities for November +4.5% versus +2.8% for S&P 500. November close
just short of all time high. 53% of Agri-Equity performed better than S&P 500. ZTS
+21% PAHC +19% ADM +12% SYT +6%
November issue of newsletter schedule to go out Wednesday.
22 November 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 246.44 +2.5% for the week
Big move for index driven by U.S. cash eggs which were up 26% for week, and 50%
in two weeks. Without eggs, index up 0.3%. Index now at highest level since end of
July. U.S. corn and soybeans bottoms now seven weeks ago. Neither likely to move
lower with North American harvest essentially complete. Now, that harvest starts to
become smaller as it is consumed.
Agri-Equities Index hits new all time high. For November to date up 5.6% versus
+2.6% for S&P 500 and a measly +1.8% for under performing NASDAQ.
ZTS +18% PAHC +18% ADM +12% JBSAY +9%
Six of the Agri-Equities have made new 52-week highs this month.
15 November 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 240.5 +1.9% for week
Highest level since 22 August. Now six weeks since corn and soybeans bottomed.
Given harvest difficulties and problems with wheat in U.S., Australia, Canada, Russia,
and Ukraine, likelihood of higher prices is good.
Agri-Equities hit new cycle high, and threaten all time high.
With Agri-Commodity prices moving higher
the selling pressure may turn into buying pressure.
For month to date: Agri-Equities + 4.3% vs. S&P 500 +1.4%
PAHC +22% ZTS +16% SPU +16% ADM +9%
US CASH CORN PRICE BREAKTHOUGH $4
While the move was not big, $4 was important psychological resistance.
Prices will have to fight for higher levels, but the bottom is behind us.