The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:

13 September 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 237.6 -1.1% for week.
Release of WASDE last week was painful for grain markets. BUT, from this report
on through harvest the grain crop should only gets smaller. 60% of the time corn
harvest is below that forecast in the September WASDE. Strong possibility that last
week was an important selling climax for the grains. While the Agri-Food Price Index
was off 1.1%, the median price change was +0.8%. That means half of the
Agri-Commodities we follow, 16 in all, rose in price more than 0.8%.

Agri-Equities were not immune to the weakness in equity markets last week. Those
least exposed to low grain prices have done well this month, and we expect them to
continue doing so. For the month, PAHC +4% and  ZTS +2%. Both ADM(+ 1%)
and BG (+2%) should benefit from large volumes of grains and low prices.  JBSAY is
down this month and investors should take advantage of that weakness.

6 September 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 240.1 +0.3% for week
Low for index was week of 15 Aug. Low for corn and soybeans was week
of 1 August. Those lows were tested on Wed-Thu, and held! That those three
did not break to new lows this past week is a positive development.
WASDE to be released on Thursday. Will bears be fed?
Agri-Equities essentially unchanged thus far in September(-0.1%).
PAHC +4% CALM +2% ZTS +3%

30 August 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 239.3 -0.8% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 8% Oversold Weekly Oscillator: 4% Oversold
Index low to date week of 15 August. two weeks ago. Low for U.S. cash corn
week of 1 August, 4 weeks ago. Will be extending our analysis of corn situation in
September letter which will go out this week.
Agri-Equities up 3.8% in August, matching the S&P 500. 53% of Agri-Equities
outperformed the market. JBS +22% SYT +16% CALM +11%
Doing web cast for this week. Probably posted there
on Wed or Thur. Will up date Corn Comments probably late next week.

23 August 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 241.2 +1.1% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 5% Oversold    Weekly Oscillator: 14% Oversold
That oscillator has turned up is encouraging. Over past four weeks:
Butter +18% Corn 9% Soybeans +7% Those gains are also encouraging.
Interim Comments emailed to day. Weather damage to Canadian wheat and
canola discussed. Those crops will be ~25% less this year. How much smaller
will be the planted acres of corn in Spring 2015 continues as a major issue.
Agri-Equities up 1.9% thus far in August. JBSAY +9% South America not
on Russian ban on meat imports. CALM +7% ZTS +6% ADM +6%

16 August 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 238.49 -1.0% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 0% Deeply Oversold Weekly Oscillator: 0% Deeply Oversold
Pessimism continues high, and continues to spread throughout Agri-Commodities.
HOWEVER, second week in a row with cash prices for both U.S. corn and
soybeans up. Cost to produce corn in U.S. averages $4.3 versus prices of ~$3.74.
This situation means that fewer acres will be planted in corn in South America
and in the U.S. Prices will rise due to this situation.
Agri-Equities having a good month with individual situations dominating.
For the month to date Agri-Equities up 1.7% vs. S&P 500 +1.3%.
CALM +8% JBSAY +8% ADM +7%
New 52-week highs: JBSAY   ZTS

9 August 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 240.95 -1.8% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 0% Deeply Oversold Weekly Oscillator: 0% Deeply Oversold
We had thought the previous weak might have been the peak in pessimism. That
was not to be as the pessimism simply moved out of corn and soybeans into other
Agri-Commodities. Corn was flat for week and soybeans were actually up.
Strong pessimism continues, and then the Russian food embargo hit. That
is an example of how ignorant are futures traders. Cattle futures were limit down
on Thursday & Friday. BUT, U.S. has not exported significant amounts of beef
to Russia since 2012. Per USDA, Russia only ranks numbers 23 for U.S. food
exports. We will publish new CORN Comments about Wednesday.

Despite the above, Agri-Equities moved up late in the week. On average, up 0.4%
for the month. 63% of Agri-Equities performing better than market thus far in August.
ADM +6%  CALM +5% JBS +3%

2 August 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 245.3 -2.5% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 2% Deeply Oversold Weekly Oscillator: 0% Oversold
Was a brutal weak in the grain markets this past week. Massive selling by
large speculative funds. Bearishness within that group could be at a maximum.
Good chance last weak was peak of bearishness.
Our research is now focused strongly on answering one question.
How high will the price of corn rise in the coming year?
Agri-Equities dragged down by bearishness. But, Agri-Equities sure
look better for the future than Techno/Junk on NASDAQ.       
August issue going out 3 August.
August Sale: One year subscription 25% off till 8 August.
To take advantage of it, email
Invoice will be sent to you.     Updated sample letters.        

We are doing significant research and writing on the topic of corn prices in the U.S.
That work is now appearing in our newsletters. After the embargo periods ends
we will publish them here. Use this link(Updated 10 September):
 CORN Comments
Most recent webcast for
Listen to it at this link:  
  FinSurNet Link