|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
6 February 2018
Agri-Food Price Index: 222.12 -1% for week
Signal Oscillator: 68% Neutral
200-Day Moving Average: 227.79
Two important development last week that will benefit Agri-Investors.
First, the dollar rally appears to be now broken. Depreciation of dollar will
cause U.S. dollar prices to rise and prices of those Agri-Commodities to fall
for foreign buyers. Combination of those two will mean U.S. exports should rise.
Some disappointment last week that U.S. grain prices did not immediately
react. Actually, this process takes some time.
Agri-Commodity prices on average down last week. U.S. broilers -6.4%
Positive was Malaysian palm oil prices, +4.3% to a new 52-week high.
Should benefit soybeans and canola.
Second, the mania in technology/internet stocks, largely visible in the
NASDAQ 100, broke down. NFLX is now in a bear market, down 38%
from December high. One to watch is FB a clear speculative favorite,
down 12% from December high.
Crushing of NASDAQ 100 should mean money flows to other groups.
Agri-Equities should be one of those groups.
For first week of February:
60% of Agri-Equities performing better than market.
S&P 500: -3.1%
NASDAQ Composite: -5.4%
Stocks to benefit from SYT buyout: MON FMC DOW/DD Ag spin off
23 January 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 221.04 +3.3% for week
4-Week Change: +4.3%
52-Week Change: -1%
After an unusually strong seasonal weak period as 2015 ended, prices have
started to gain some strength. Perhaps the most important thing is the improving
strength of real prices versus financial prices. Since July 2015 the
character of markets has been changing:
US Cash corn: +4.6%
A-F Price Index: -2.1%
Agri-Equities Tier One: -7.4%
S&P 500: -8.3%
NASDAQ 100: -8.4%
Interesting to note is that corn in the bin outperformed U.S. stocks.
This shifting relative strength to the real sector is likely to persist as
bear market in stocks continue.
9 January 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 211.93 -0.5% for the week
Signal Oscillator: 10% Over Sold
Not a nice start to the year this past week, but some improvement was
noted toward the end of the week. Those commodities that seem most
sensitive to emotions created by worry over China and the world were
especially punished. Sugar -5% $Palm Oil -4% $Canola -4.0% However,
US cash corn was only off $0.04 and US soybeans were off $0.09 by end of week.
In contrast to that weakness, animal protein prices are suddenly showing surprising
strength. US beef index +9% US feeder steers +11% US pork +11%
As to the Agri-Equities, they were unable to escape the carnage in global stock
markets. However, encouragement comes from the continued relative strength versus
the market. 60% of the Agri-Equities are performing better than the market.
Tier One Agri-Equities: -4.9%
S&P 500: -6.0%
NASDAQ Composite: -7.3%
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19 December 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 210.59 -2.5% for week
Signal Oscillator: 33% Slightly Oversold
US Meat Index: -3.1% for week
US Major Grain Index: +0.6%
We would have to describe the markets of last week as a lot more than
disappointing. However, we did start to see an improvement begin on
Thursday when grain markets moved down in the morning and then reversed
themselves in the afternoon. As indicated above, the major weakness was in the
animal protein sector, meats, eggs, and chicken. Hanging over the market is the
collapse of the Argentine peso and weakness in Brazilian real. Argentina is expected
to increase exports due to the currency devaluation. Reality may be slightly less
onerous than expectations as traders may have over responded to that news.
Equities were not a place to be last week. However, the selling does seem to be
shifting to some of the popular fads. For example, AAPL entered a bear market
on Friday with it down 21% from the high. Agri-Equities were punished early
in the month, and relative strength picked up slightly in the past week. At this time
attention is starting to turn to what might happen in 2016. Selling anything commodity
related was a popular theme in 2015. Sellers have probably been exhausted. Second,
with Agri-Commodity prices likely to move higher in 2016 sellers will become buyers.
2016 is likely to be good to Agri-Food investors.
12 December 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 216.09 -5.2% for week
Signal Oscillator: 59% Neutral
Wow! Last week was a rough one on all markets. Agri-Commodity prices were
not immune to the myriad of negative forces at work. Agri-Food Price Index was
pushed to a new 52-week low. Most of the fall was due to strong seasonal
corrections in U.S. cash eggs(-36%) and butter(-24%).
Price of US wheat(+0.9%) was the single one that rose.
Quite frankly, we have not witnessed such an event in years. A large part
of problem is the price of oil which depresses the market for ethanol, and
increases the negative psychology on all commodities. Continuing over
valuation of U.S. dollar also not a help with US exports. WTO has ruled against
U.S. on COOL, Country of Origin Labeling), which was and is a rather dumb idea.
Mexico and Canada may now impose $1.1 billion of tariffs on U.S. goods.
We can thank the food nuts for that gift.
The real question? What will be the situation a year from now? Better. Oil price
will be higher a year from now and the U.S. dollar will be lower.
Agri-Commodity prices will also be higher.
In case one did not notice, the U.S. stock market began to collapse last week.
However, we are encouraged that thus far this month 60% of Agri-Equities have
performed better than the market. While we do not like negative returns either,
improving relative strength is often an indicator of better future performance.
In short, despite last week we are very optimistic on the 2016 outlook
for Agri-Commodity prices and Agri-Equities.
21 November 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 228.59 +1.0% for week
Signal Oscillator: 41% Neutral
With Northern Hemisphere harvest essentially complete, news on the harvest became
less of a factor. Cash markets did improve nicely during the week. Both US cash corn
and soybeans were up this past week. US eggs +7.6% US oats +7.4%
US$ palm oil +5.0% With exception of the beef complex, signs of improvement are
developing. World sugar trading at $15.3 with 52 week high at $15.6.
Cotton at $0.63 with 52 week high at $0.66.
US stock market indices roared last week as funds pushed large favorites higher,
primarily NASDAQ 100. However, new lows dominated new highs. US stock
market at HIGH risk. Below is an article to read on this topic. That said, 50% of the
Agri-Equities have performed better than the market month to date which is an
improvement from earlier in the month. For the month: SYT +15%, ZTS +10%,
CALM +6% ADM which has been crushed this month, -20%,
is one to start watching.
Article on US stock market to read: High Risk US Market
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|PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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|PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
|PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.