The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
is the premier newsletter on Agri-Food investing.
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Disclaimer: All performance numbers cited are
hypothetical and based on paper portfolios. They do
not reflect actual transactions or portfolios. They
certainly do not predict likely future performance.

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:


24 July 2016

For our comments this week see sample of Interim Comments
which are available in green box.


9 July 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 228.53
1 Week % Change:   - 0.7
4 Week % Change:   +1.3%
52 Week % Change:   -6.2%
200 Day Moving Average: 220.17 +0.16
From Low(18 Dec 15) +9%

Brexit hurt, though we know not why. NO direct connection exists between
England leaving the EU and demand for Agri-Foods. If any does, it is so far
to the right in the decimals as to be undetectable. Psychology and margin
squeeze on traders was the most likely culprit in causing the collapse of
prices such as corn.

On Thursday were first hints of an improvement. Cash prices strengthened
materially on Friday. A-F Price Index had been down almost 1.8% for week,
but ended week only down 0.7%. While WASDE is due Tuesday with possibility
of less than good news, US corn export sales are 31% from a year ago. Corn
oscillator is at 0%, a deeply oversold condition.

Agri-Equities have been beaten hard this month as Brexit rolled through the markets.
However, signs of improvement began late Thursday. With Agri-Food prices moving
higher for the rest of year they should again do better than the market. For month-to-
date:   PAHC +6.5%   CALM +3%   ZTS +2.2%


25 June 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 230.94
1 Week % Change:   - 0.6%
4 Week % Change:   +6.0%
52 Week % Change:   -5.4%
200 Day Moving Average: 220.01
From Low(18 Dec 15) +10%

Only thing we know for sure today is that most did not enjoy last week, especially
Friday. Now that England has voted for the end of the world, everyone seemed to
want to sell something. As we do not expect the world will actually end due to the
Brexit, we suspect people will keep eating. Brexit will not alter the amount of
soybeans imported by China by an amount sufficient to change a decimal.

We have updated the sample newsletters posted above. I
nterim Comments
is an especially important read. Shows the extremely bullish case
developing in Agri-Foods.

US corn prices were hit especially hard last week. Part of reason for that was corn
was already correcting. Corrections involve two forces, price and time.
Price portion of the correction is probably at or near completion. Some time
is now required to build the base, and that may be about three weeks.

Our stocks participated fully in Friday’s sell off. Did have one stock up, CALM.
And yes, that bothers us.  However, out of every correction comes another
market. Rarely is it the same stock groups. For example, bank stocks are
now dead money. Leadership of NASDAQ 100 is going to experience more
selling. Agri-Equities are a group likely to ultimately benefits as they do most
of their business in driven by Asia-Pacific arena, not the EU.

Link to our latest investment results summary:
Investment Summary 26 June

18 June 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 232.29
1 Week % Change:   +3.0%
4 Week % Change:   +6.6%
52 Week % Change:   -0.6%
200 Day Moving Average: 219.85
From Low(18 Dec 15) +10%

While soybeans have been receiving a lot of attention, corn is the really
exciting story. With US cash corn at a new 52-week high and up 49% from
the September 2014 low, US cash corn is in a bull market. Most important the
strength in corn and soybeans has extremely strong positive implications for
cash flow of farmers.

Agri-Food Price Index was up strongly last week. Part of that strength was
the beginning of a recovery in US cash eggs prices which had fallen by 90+%.
For the week: US cash eggs +50% US cash butter +8% US cash corn +4%
US cash sorghum +4%

With equity markets continuing to have problems, especially in the favorites
that dominate the NASDAQ 100, hard for any stock group to do as well as
we would like. That admitted, Agri-Equities continue to do better than the market.
For the month to date: Agri-Equities -1.2%   NASDAQ Composite -3.0%
DE +5%   JBSAY +4% AGU +4% SYT +2%


11 June 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 225.54
1 Week % Change:   +1.9%
4 Week % Change:   +2.9%
52 Week % Change:   -5.2%
200 Day Moving Average: 219.77

On Friday USDA released latest WASDE. Great news for soybeans and
good news for corn. In August 2017 USDA forecasts that U.S. soybean
inventories will be equal to 24 days of consumption, down from 28 days.
Farmers are going to using a broom and dustpan to get every last soybean
out of those bins. For corn the forecast is now 52 days, down from 55 days.

In July WASDE will be revisions to acreage and yield forecasts. That could
change what is very positive picture for soybeans and a good one for corn.
But, the weather forecasts, including La Nina, do not suggest that the revisions
could be materially upward.

Interim Comments will be emailed on Tuesday. In it we will give our guesses
for soybean and corn prices. We are far more optimistic after the latest WASDE
and weather forecasts.

Agri-Equities were doing nicely thus far in June, until Friday. For some reason
strong selling appeared that day. Thus far in the month Agri-Equities are
essentially flat, while the market is down. 67% have performed better
than the market thus far in June.
JBSAY +8%   FMC +5%   AGU +4%  Like all three.
                                                    

4 June 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 221.35
1 Week % Change:   +1.6%
4 Week % Change:   +1.0%
52 Week % Change:   -8.3%
200 Day Moving Average: 219.73

On Friday with the US jobs report we got a good lesson on the forecasting
ability of Street economists. My daughter’s dog was closer to the correct
number. These are the same Bozos that claim to know what is happening in
China and are negative on Gold and Agri-Commodities. Due to the miserable
jobs report the dollar collapsed, and is headed lower.

Agri-Commodities were up 1.6% last week. Clear winners were world
sugar(+7.6%) to a 52-week high. US cash soybeans were up 3.5% to also
a new 52-week high. In fact, 16 of 18 Agri-Commodities were up last week!
Clearly the move for soybeans got investor attention. US cash corn remaining
above $4 also helped.

All of that good news plus the continue miserable performance of the
technology/internet stocks was good for Agri-Equities. While 3 days does not
make a trend, 80% of Agri-Equities are up thus far in June, and
likewise 80% outperformed the market.

Winner for start of June was JBSAY(+11%), and it remains one of our favorites.
But note, reorganization of the company will take some time!

FMC was up 3%, and it too would be favorite. With MON and SYT
disappearing, FMC is only remaining independent crop protection stock
until Dow/du Pont company is split.


29 May 2016
Writing June newsletter
Goes out on Friday.
US cash soybeans and world sugar hit new 52-week highs!
US cash corn ends week at $4.12
Trends are strengthening.


22 May 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 220.17
1 Week % Change:   +0.4%
4 Week % Change:   +1.8%
52 Week % Change:   -7.2%
200 Day Moving Average: 220.14

This past week the old story about the dollar soaring as the FOMC raises interest
rates was reincarnated. Street needed something to trade, and the dollar was
chosen. That action put a lot of pressure on commodity prices, but by end
of week the cash markets were ignoring that flailing about. Both US cash
soybeans and World sugar hit 52-week highs. Our measure of US cash corn
closed the week at $3.95 as four dollar corn is increasingly accepted.

La Nina, which seems to now be arriving, is gaining attention. It should produce
hotter and dryer conditions across the northern half of the U.S. and bring rains
to the Pacific. Consequence should be pressure on U.S. crops and more
palm oil in Malaysia.

MON was the talk as Bayer seems to be making an offer for the company.
BASF might provide an alternative to Bayer. FMC is benefitting from all this,
and is likely to continue to do so.

Restructuring of JBS with primary trading for stock of international operations
moving to the U.S. is strong positive. Will be only major, international animal
protein company available for trading. Note though that restructuring will not
happen quickly, and time frame is not known. ADR in U.S. trades as JBSAY.


Our latest webcast.
To hear our latest webcast use this link:
Schmidt Webcast
PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
BITGOLD
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PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Island Earth