|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
is the premier newsletter on Agri-Food investing.
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
9 December 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 272.70
4 Week % Change: + 2%
52 Week % Change: +18%
200 Day Moving Average: 262.14
52-Week High: 277.15 - 2%
52-Week Low: 231.50 +18%
We have updated two samples letters offered above.
You will find that we are far more optimistic on US corn prices than most.
Chinese corn production this year was a 5 year low.
Premium of Chinese corn over US corn is at a 52-week high of ~$3.40.
26 November 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 273.77
4 Week % Change: + 4%
52 Week % Change: +32%
200 Day Moving Average: 260.50
52-Week High: 277.15 - 1%
52-Week Low: 218.89 +25%
Agri-Food Price Index is now within 1% of a new, all time high. That,
indeed, is encouraging. However, US cash corn continues to lag. However,
our measure of US cash corn price made a low six weeks ago,
and is now up 5% from 52-week low.
In December issue we will talk about ethanol and corn. Outlook for both is
actually encouraging. Now seeing some analysts turning more positive on corn.
They are also talking about $4 corn in 2018. We like that talk.
So, enter our Corn Price Pool. Costs nothing to enter. Simply use the
Contact Us form above to send us your guess of what month our measure of
US cash corn will hit $4. Closest guess wins one year subscription.
Latest price for that measure is $3.39. Include
in that submission where you live. We will never publish your
email address, but we want to know where the best forecasters live.
All forecasters will receive a free, 3 month trial subscription.
We missed Black Friday, but we will run a special discount for next two weeks.
50% off our one year subscription price for a new subscription or extension of an
existing subscription. Use Contact Us to email us and we will send a
Paypal invoice. Offer expires 10 December.
8 October 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 260.79
4 Week % Change: - 1%
52 Week % Change: +35%
200 Day Moving Average: 256.57
52-Week High: 277.15 - 6%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +35%
Recent correction in Agri-Food Price Index has been largely driven by seasonal
decline of meat price that happens in the Fall. That decline seems to be
approaching an end, and animal protein prices should begin moving higher.
In grain pessimism still seems to be the norm despite most grains having moved
strongly off their low. Exception to that has been soybeans and corn. Following
is a list of major grains, palm oil competes with soybeans, along with
percentage change from 52-week US cash market price lows.
With exception of soybean and corn, all have rallied from lows.
Palm Oil 12%
Clearly, the situation is corn and soybeans is contrary to the basic trend of grain
prices. We note, for example, that sorghum prices are up 13% flow low.
Sorghum competes somewhat with corn, and no good reason it should be
up and corn should be down. Corn, especially, and soybeans in U.S.
are being mispriced. Corn has been pushed to a low by large speculators selling
futures. In last report, large speculators were net short 235 million bushel
of corn. This group is notorious for being wrong, and corn prices should
go higher. Poor conditions on Mississippi and Ohio rivers may also be a factor.
Gulf corn prices are $0.65-0.75 per bushel higher than inland prices.
Agri-Equities also hit a new high with the start of October. Leaders include
Wilmar +4%, CALM +3%, AGCO +2%. Given the mania going on in U.S.
stocks, not many under valued stocks. We are looking at BG, but cautiously.
We have added BRFS, world’s largest exporter of chicken, to Tier Two.
Updated sample newsletter above.
10 September 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 263.15
4 Week % Change: - 1%
52 Week % Change: +26%
200 Day Moving Average: 253.98
52-Week High: 277.15 - 5%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +36%
With animal proteins in normal seasonal weakness, that should last generally
for another month or so, and grains being pummeled by juvenile traders,
Agri-Food Price Index has been in a correction since third week of July.
Index fell a little more than 6% to 25th of August. In the two weeks since
then it has recovered 1.5%, a good gain for a mere two weeks.
All important question is when will major grains bottom or have they already
done so. US cash soybeans have been up for three weeks as has US cash
wheat. US cash corn was up last week while sorghum increased for second
week. Now looks like 25th of August was indeed the bottom for the grains as a
whole. WASDE is to come out Tuesday, and most analysts are being
conservative with forecasts. May either be nothing report or a slightly positive one.
Hurricane damage from Harvey has really not been fully assessed. Cotton rally
may be overdone. Irma, rampaging Florida as we write, will no doubt do some
damage to sugar there. However, around the world plenty of sugar exists.
Our real concern is how far north remnants of Irma travel and how much
damage to existing crops is done.
16 August 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 26.49
4 Week % Change: - 6%
52 Week % Change: +20%
200 Day Moving Average: 250.33
52-Week High: 277.15 - 6%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +35%
After rallying more than 40% from the October low, the Agri-Food Price
Index has been in a correction for the past month. Animal proteins are in
their normal seasonal weak period. Rampant bearishness is running wild
through the grains. These period of price weakness caused by bearish traders
are not enjoyable, but the tend to exhaust themselves.
The oscillator for the Agri-Food Price Index is at 3%, a deeply oversold
reading. Bearishness among grain traders is reaching an extreme level. Their
brains are now dysfunctional. Both bearishness and bullish views move
to extremes that are reversed by the market.
In our latest Interim Comments we observed that China’s corn deficit,
consumption in excess of production, will increase again this coming crop year,
2018, to 23 million tons. We posed a question from that. Will China b
importing more corn next year?
Some stocks to look at are ADM, BG, AGU, and MOO.
But, stock market is extremely vulnerable.
21 July 2017
Agri-Food Price Index Hits New All Time High
Agri-Food Price Index: 276.13
Record High: 276.16
4 Week % Change: + 4.3%
52 Week % Change: +28%
200 Day Moving Average: 244.55
eek High: 276.16 0%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +42%
New web cast (13 July) posted above.
Agri-Food Price Index again hit a new all time high yesterday. Index is now
up 28% from a year ago. That number is so strong some moderation would be
expected. New 52-week highs for butter and US$ canola while world rice
continues at one. Pork and hogs continue to defy seasonal tendency to weaken.
As we have written many times, animal proteins have been the truly strong
segment of Agri-Commodities. At some point in time the market will go
through a rotation from animal proteins to grains. Two grains, oats and sorghum,
are starting to suggest that rotation may be in process. Oats are a niche grain
somewhat, but tend to be often a leading indicator of prices in other grain.
US oat prices hit a new 52-week high end of previous week.
Loneliest sales person in world has to be a sorghum sales person. U.S.
sorghum exports have been essentially collapsing for more than a year. It
competes with corn, and corn is readily available. However, US sorghum
price hit a new 52-week high two weeks ago. That development along with
oat price signal suggests that the bears in corn and soybeans may have
a limited life expectancy.
With U.S. stock market in full blown internet/technology mania or bubble,
pick your own descriptor, hard to recommend particular ideas.
Some to look at are ADM, BG, AGU, and MOO.
A web cast on Agri-Foods 13 July
To hear web cast:
Web cast on Agri-Food
|PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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|PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
|PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Web cast on Gold & Agriculture
On Gold & Agriculture