|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
25 October 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 234.7 -0.6% for the week
Signal Oscillator: 29%, returning to over sold.
Index declined in the past week, but that was due entirely to U.S. butter(-10%) and
U.S. hogs(-9%). Excluding those two item index would have been up 0.6%. Both
U.S. corn and soybeans were up 3% for the week. Bottom for corn and soybeans
was, thus far, in week ending 3 October. Weather around the world not cooperating.
Is causing problems in Russia with wheat planting and in Brazil with soybean plantings.
Wild speculation has return to trading in the techno/junk trading on the NASDAQ.
Amazon was the big failure of the week. One-by-one the techno/junk is having
trouble. For October to date 53% of the Agri-Equities are performing better than the
market. For October: PAHC +7%, AGU +4%, JBSAY +4%, DE +4%,
Interim Comments emailed on Friday. Did web cast this past week for
financialsense.com and financialsurvivalnetwork.com
Most was on Gold though latter did cover Ag briefly.
18 October 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 236.1 -1.0% for week
Signal Oscillator: 34% Slightly Oversold
Butter prices finally declined from extreme, falling 29% for week.
Excluding butter, the index would have been +0.8% for the week. US corn and
soybean prices have now been up for 2 weeks. Real issue now is what happens
in the Spring. How much will U.S. corn acreage shrink,
and how much smaller will be global corn crop?
While equity markets are in deep trouble, Agri-Equities are holding up well. For
month to date, Agri-Equities -3.0% versus S&P 500 -4.3% and NASDAQ -5.0%.
For the month, 73% of the Agri-Equities are performing better than the market.
JBS +16% PAHC+10%
Scheduled to do web casts for finnancialsense.com and financialsurvivalnetwork.com
this week. Both should be posted on their web sites Wednesday or later.
11 October 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 238.5 +0.9% for the week
Signal Oscillator: 28% Weekly Oscillator: 60%
Oscillator gave a buy signal for the week.
These buy signals mean that Agri-Food Price Index
is likely to rise in the weeks ahead.
WASDE released Friday. While the report was about as expected, the higher
estimate for corn combined with the wide spread negative tone to financial markets
sent futures lower. However, for the week most Agri-Commodity prices, we follow
16, were up.
Collapse of equity markets this past week had been developing for weeks. Few
stocks could escape the carnage. For the month to date, Agri-Equities -2.5% versus
S&P 500 -3.4%. For month to date, 47% of Agri-Equities performing better than
market. JBSAY +15% CALM +5% PAHC +5%
Sample newsletters available here updated. Corn comments will be updated
this coming week. Interim Comments to go out on Tuesday.
4 October 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 160.31 +0.2% for week
Signal Oscillator: 8% Weekly Oscillator: 17%
While pessimism on corn and soybeans remains high, remainder of
Agri-Commodities are starting to reflect individual conditions.
For example, Canada slashed forecasts for wheat and canola with a BIG knife.
October newsletter mailed on Friday. In it we continue our extensive discussion of
corn and soybeans. Our estimate is that 20+% of U.S. farmers will lose money
planting corn. The U.S. price of corn for those farmers is below the
cost of fuel, seed, etc. to plant the corn. On average, U.S. corn and soybeans farms
will lose money next year at current spot price of those grains. As a consequence, we
forecast that U.S. corn production will fall by more than 10% in calendar 2015.
Under these conditions corn prices must rise next year.
While October is only three market days old,
40% of Agri-Equities are beating the market.
20 September 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 234.6 -1.3% for week!
Index has now been deeply oversold for 10 weeks. That level of negative
psychology unprecedented. Corn and soybeans hammered this past week.
Reworked U.S. corn forecast for 2015-16, which will be planted in Spring 2015 and
harvested Fall 2015. We project that U.S. corn harvest will decline by 10+%, or
more. Using December contract price, almost 10% of U.S. farmers cannot, repeat
cannot, cover the cost of planting corn. Reduction in corn plantings next year could be
more dramatic than decline we are forecasting.
Month to date Agri-Equities, on average, are beating the market. Agri-Equities
+0.5% vs. +0.4% for S&P 500. 40% of Agri-Equities beating the market.
PAHC +19% CALM +15% ZTS +5% ADM +4% Was a story reporting that an
analyst believes that Bayer could bid for ZTS. While possible,
not like to happen any time soon.
AGRI-FOOD VALUE VIEW CORN COMMENTS
We are doing significant research and writing on the topic of corn prices in the U.S.
That work is now appearing in our newsletters. After the embargo periods ends
we will publish them here. Use this link(Updated 10 September):