The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
is the premier newsletter on Agri-Food investing.
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Disclaimer: All performance numbers cited are
hypothetical and based on paper portfolios. They do
not reflect actual transactions or portfolios. They
certainly do not predict likely future performance.

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:

28 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index: 228.2   +0.0% for week
Signal Oscillator: 81%   Over Bought, and due to rest.

Will U.S. corn hit $4.5 on Thursday? On Tuesday, 31 March, USDA will release
report on prospective planting of corn and soybeans acres by U.S. farmers.
Corn prices have developed strong resistance at the $4 level.
Popular resistance, and support, levels are taken out with a vengeance. Note that
CME grains do not trade on Friday as it is Good Friday. Should the estimated corn
acreage to be planted show a larger reduction than trade estimates,
traders may move to cover shorts rather than hold them over a three day holiday.

For the week: Butter +4%   Eggs +3%   Hogs -4% (Why do they keep producing
them?)  Sugar -4% (Price of sugar is going to zero.)

Agri-Equities are slightly weaker than the market(S&P 500) this month.
However, for year-to-date Agri-Equities +2.4% & S&P 500 +0.1%
For the month:   SPU +14%   CALM +4%

Subscribe to Agri-Food Value View by 2 March, receive a $40 credit!


21 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   228.8   +0.8% for the week
Signal Oscillator:   66%, and rising
Last buy signal:   7 March

Spring is slowly unfolding and the dollar collapsed this past week. Both factors are
helping Agri-Commodity prices. Attention is focused on the USDA Prospective
Planting report due 31 March. How much less corn acreage and how much more
soybean acreage? Of less interest, but more important is
that most forecasts are going to be too optimistic on yields.

For the week: US eggs +8%,   US wheat +5%(forecasts were too optimistic on
yields), US hogs -5%(but one broker now a bull on hog prices)

With the FOMC demonstrating the leadership qualities and decision making
capabilities of kindergarten students on a playground, traders played enthusiastically in
stock markets. Agri-Equities generally are not trading stocks so they are lagging for
the month though 53% of them are performing better than the market year-to-date.
For month-to-date: SPU +9%  CALM +3%   ZTS +3%   JBSAY +1%

On Friday a UN agency, WHO, announced that one study suggested that
glyphosate, Roundup, was probably a carcinogen if used improperly. We generally
doubt anything coming out of a UN agency. Unbiased science is not their main goal.
Further, the study was done in a French lab which casts further doubts on the
conclusions. That said, the nutty food groupies on the web and the environmental
wackos will run with this one. We have advocated SYT rather than MON for
sometime, and this reinforces that view. See this article for more:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/popular-weed-killer-deemed-probable-191340592.
html


7 March 2015
Agri-Food Price Index:   227.6   +0.0% for week
Signal Oscillator:  32%   Weekly Oscillator:   54%

With signal oscillator moving above 20%,
a Buy signal on the Agri-Food Price Index occurred this week.  

Dollar Bubble still a problem, but generally speaking bottoms are being put in place
for most Agri-Commodities. Exception may be U.S. soybeans. For the week: Eggs
+15%   Butter + 3%   Eggs + 2%   Loser: U.S. soybeans  - 5%

Stock market had serious problems last week, and is preparing to enter a bear
market. Agri-Equities tend to have a rough time at the beginning of the month.
Month-to-date: Agri-Equities  - 2.3%   
For year-to-date: Agri-Equities + 2.6%   S&P 500 + 0.6%
For month-to-date: SPU + 9%   Wilmar +0.1%

21 February 2015
Agri-Food Price Index:   226.1  -0.1% for week.
Signal Oscillator:  14%
Weekly Oscillator:   17%
A-F Price Index set up for a buy signal.
Lat short-term low:   3 weeks ago

USDA released latest forecast for U.S. corn and soybean acreage.
Both are expected to below last year. But, they
are too optimistic on U.S. corn acreas. Now 20 weeks since
U.S. corn prices bottom. China price ~9% a bushel.
Broilers +3%  Hogs +2.5%  Cotton +2%   Soybeans +1%
First time in six weeks hog prices rose.

Equity markets are in a euphoric and dangerous state.
Month to date:  Agri-Equities   +5%
Tier One Agri-Equitie hit a new, all time high.
For month:  PAHC +26%  AGCO +16%  SYT +9%

Still offering a free three month trial subscription.
Email ned@agrifoodvalueview.com

Link to our latest web cast which discussed
Peak Food can be found at top right of page.


15 February 2015
Agri-Food Price Index:   226.44   -0.8% for week
Signal Oscillator:   10%   Oversold
Weekly Oscillator:   11%   Oversold
Last short-term low:   2 weeks ago

In the January issue we enticed our subscribers to read an introductory
article on Peak Food. That writing was based on important and comprehensive
research onfood production. In future issues of Agri-Food Value View we will be
talking more about Peak Food. This may be some of the most important research
we have every discussed. Peak Food is such an important topic we
want as many investors as possible to received this information.
Therefore, we will be doing something not done in years, offering a free
three month trial subscription. If you would like to receive a free three month
trial subscription, write ned@agrifoodvalueview.com

To read the introductory article on Peak Food use the follow link.
Peak Food Intro  

7 February 2015

A
gri-Food Price Index:   228.2    +1.8% for week
Signal Oscillator:   12%   Oversold
Weekly oscillator:  19%   

Weekly oscillator has now turned up and through signal oscillator. Those are
the pre-conditions necessary for a buy signal on the A-F Price Index. For week:  
Palm oil +13%   U.S. corn +6%   U.S. sorgham +4%  Prices were aided by
weakening of the U.S. dollar. Prices generally improve as February unfolds.
Attention will start to shift to how much less corn acreage will be planted
in the U.S. Could be a surprise to price bears.

Equity markets traded violently on any news on Greece and price of oil. The teenage
traders were running wild. Month to date:   Agri-Equities +1.5%  For year to date
Agri-Equities +1.1%, outperforming both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.  For month
to date: AGCO +13%   SYT +5%   DE +4%  

NEWS to watch. U.S. West coast ports are shutdown through Monday
due to a work slow down by unions. Cannot afford full wages with little work being
done. This situation could seriously hinder export of grains
!

Coming in the March issue:  Peak Food


24 January 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   225.8   -1% for week
Signal Oscillator:   0% (for second week) DEEPLY oversold

Appreciation of dollar, depreciation of foreign currencies, had a dramatic impact on
Agri-Commodity prices this past week. We explained this in some detail in Interim
Comments emailed out of Saturday. For example, despite the Canadian dollar price
of canola rising, U.S. dollar price of Canadian canola has fallen. That falling price is
pressuring U.S. soybean prices. In short, about 50% of
the drop by the A-F Price Index was due to the appreciating dollar.

We continue to be more positive on U.S. corn prices due to at least a 10% drop in
Brazilian and U.S. corn acreage this year.

For the week: Eggs +17%   U.S. chicken prices fell 6%. Those prices rise in
anticipation of U.S. Super Bowl, a day on which massive quantities of chicken wings
are consumed. Buying for that event was completed,
and prices fell as they normally do.

On average, Agri-Equities +0.2% for month to date versus S&P 500 -0.3%. 53% of
Agri-Equities performing better than market month to date.  Month to date:  SPU
+15% AGU +10%   We like Wilmar, DAR, AGCO, SYT, and JBS.
  



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