The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Disclaimer: All performance numbers cited are
hypothetical and based on paper portfolios. They do
not reflect actual transactions or portfolios. They
certainly do not predict likely future performance.

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:


23 April 2016

Agri-Food Price Index:   217.07   +1.3% for week
52-Week % Change:   -2.9%
200-Day Moving Average:   221.55
52-Week High:   244.20
52-Week Low:   210.59

Was truly exciting this past week in Agri-Commodity markets. In first part of week
US corn futures for May and Dec moved above $4. However, on Thursday US
reported a strong labor number which resurrected the old, tired story of Federal
Reserve raising rates and the dollar soaring, neither of which is going to happen.
At the same time selling corn at those prices was to enticing. On Thursday
and Friday the grains were hit hard by selling. However, the important point is that
corn showed that it could go above $4.

Noteworthy was US pork carcass up 7% and world cotton up 6.5%.

Agri-Equities continue to have a good month, with Tier One Agri-Equities up 5.7%
for the month. Wilmar(Singapore) hit a new 52-week high. 67% of Agri-Equities
performing better than market. With NASDAQ 100 breaking down last week and
tech stocks crashing, we do expect money to flow into Agri-Equities this year.


Interim Comments to be mailed out Sunday, 24 April.

Following link is to an update of Investment Scoreboard 2016.

 Investment Scoreboard 2016  


9 April 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   212.82   For week: +0.2%
200-Day Moving Average:   222.09
52 Week High:   244.2
52 Week Low:   210.6
One Year % Change:   -4.5%
Signal Oscillator:   21%   Oversold

Past week was better after the shock of the USDA Prospective Planting
report in the previous week. Most of the decline of our Agri-Food Price
Index in recent weeks has been due to US cash eggs for which prices have
collapsed more than 80%. US cash corn began to recover from the hit taken
during previous week. Maybe the market does not believe the corn acreage
estimate in the Prospective Planting report. WASDE will be out on Tuesday.
Market does not yet seem to fear that report, but the corn estimate
could scare some.  

However, more important as we go forward is that the dollar peaked
in January, as we talked about in the April letter. That development may
already be having a positive impact on U.S. grain exports. For the second
week we noticed an improvement in those exports. We expect U.S. grain
exports to do much better in the year ahead.

Stock market seemed to as the week passed shed the euphoria of the past
month. Agri-Equities tend to be weak at the beginning of the month and
quarter as money flows into the fantasy stocks still popular. Thus far in April,
60% of the Agri-Equities Tier One are performing better than the S&P 5000.
Noteworthy is Wilmar which hit a new 52-week high in Singapore this week.


25 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   218.50   -0.2% for week
200-Day Moving Average:   224.34
52 Week High:   244.2
52 Week Low:   210.6
One Year % Change:   -4.5%
Signal Oscillator:   51%   Neutral

Past week data, given the Good Friday holiday, was limited. Market activity
was also reduced due to that holday. On average, Agri-Commodity prices have
risen by 3.0% in the past four weeks. Most interesting is that grain prices
have refused to go down. That seems to have been due to two factors,
weakness in the dollar and expectations that USDA Prospective Planting report
will not be supply bullish/price bearish. That view will be tested on 12 April
when next WASDE is released.

Perhaps most interesting is what had not happened. Both US cash corn and
soybean prices have now been up for four weeks. Our measure of US cash
soybeans has been $9+ for three weeks. A different tone definitely. While dollar’s
slippage has not yet had a chance to have a real, on the ground effect, it does
seem to have improved attitudes.

Stock markets are again showing some signs of internal weakness. Both the
breadth measure, advances minus declines, and new highs minus new lows were
negative for the week. Agri-Equities continue to perform well. Thus far in March
Agri-Equities Tier One are up 6.3% vs. S&P 500 up 5.4% and NASDAQ
Composite +4.7. 87% of Agri-Equities are up this month.

For month to date, DAR +38%   BG +12%   Wilmar +11%   FMC +8%


18 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   218.99   +0.7% for week
200-Day Moving Average:   224.36
52 Week High:   244.2
52 Week Low:   210.6
One Year % Change:   -4.3%
Signal Oscillator:   56%   Neutral

On average, Agri-Commodity prices have risen by 2.2% in the past four
weeks. Several factors have contributed to that. Oil prices have risen.
Second, the dollar is falling against most currencies. The latter has had a strong
positive impact on psychology. While dollar’s slide has not yet had an impact
on U.S. export sales, hope that it will has developed.

In the past week, both world sugar and Malaysian palm oil hit new 52-week highs.
For the week, world sugar +5.6%, US broilers +4.8%,
Malaysian palm oil US$ +3.5%, Canola US$ +2.8%, and US cash corn +0.9%.

Stock markets continue to be rising dramatically, though no good reason exists for
that. Agri-Equities continue to perform well. Thus far in March Agri-Equities
Tier One are up 8.2% vs. S&P 500 up 6.1%

For month to date, DAR +39%   JBSAY +18%   BG +12%   Wilmar +11%


5 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   214.84   +1.3% for week
200-Day Moving Average:   225.13
52 Week High:   244.2
52 Week Low:   210.6
One Year % Change:   -5.6%
Signal Oscillator:   16%   Oversold

Word seemed to turn positive for Agri-Commodity this past week. First,
price of oil appears to have found a bottom While we do not expect much from
oil prices, the rally has helped psychology. Second, and perhaps more important,
the dollar's rally has been broken. Brazilian real, for example, was screaming
upwards last week. Even Argentinian peso rallied. While that will not immediately
improve U.S. export situation, it is a move in the right direction.

For month-to-date: Agri-Equities +5.25   S&P 500 +3.5%   NASDAQ +3.5%
DAR +33%   KUB +12%   BG +10%   ADM +8%   FMC +8%

While only four trading days thus far in March, Agri-Equities are showing
unusual strength. The factors mentioned above that helped Agri-Commodity
prices have also helped the equities. Stocks we have mentioned favorably
include FMC, DE, & AGCO.

March letter mailed out Friday.

20 February 2016

Agri-Food Price Index:   214.35
Week Change:   -1.5%
52-Week Change:   -5.2%

Agri-Food Price Index was down for the week, but U.S. cash eggs(-24%) were
the primary reason for that decline. Positive for the week were U.S. corn(+1.3%),
soybeans(+0.7%), and wheat(+2%). U.S. exports continue to be the major
problem. In the aggregate, U.S. grain exports are down 16% from a year ago.
However, the dollar is starting to show some weakness against other currencies
in general. Brazilian real may have put in place a low.

Equity markets continue to be brutal on investors. Early in the weak equities
rallied off an over sold condition, but most of that action was in a handful of
stocks. DE reported earnings. Though nothing new in that report, Agri-Equities
were sold as a result of continuing lackluster equipment sales. Despite all that,
Gold is giving us some encouragement. Over the past year, Gold is +1.6% while
the NASDAQ 100 is -5.9%. Those relative returns may begin to entice investors
into looking more favorably on commodity related investments as time goes one.
For the month:   Wilmar(Singapore) +13.4%   SYT +9.6%    JBSAY +2%


13 February 2016

Agri-Food Price Index:   217.57   -2% for week
200-Day Moving Average:    227.52
Signal Oscillator:   65%   Neutral

Was a rough week in all markets. Agri-Commodities, on average, were down.
Decline was largely driven by price of U.S. cash eggs which fell by 28%. Despite
that, two signs of better times ahead were noted. Malaysian palm oil again hit a 52-
week high. In US$ terms it is up more than a third from the low.
U.S. soybeans were also up for the week. Over valued U.S. dollar continues
to be a problem, but exceptionally strong Gold prices this past week suggest
dollar is more likely to decline. That will not immediately help U.S. exports,
but it is the first step toward improvement.

As for the Agri-Equities, they were brutalized last week as the Bear market in stocks
continued to unfold. However, the Gold stocks ETFs are both up by about 50%
from their lows which means they are now in a Bull market. That suggests that
commodity related investments may again become of interest to investors.

Interim Comments will be sent out on Wednesday.

hould benefit soybeans and canola.

Our latest webcast.
To hear our latest webcast use this link:
Schmidt Webcast
PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Island Earth