The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
is the premier newsletter on Agri-Food investing.
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Disclaimer: All performance numbers cited are
hypothetical and based on paper portfolios. They do
not reflect actual transactions or portfolios. They
certainly do not predict likely future performance.

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:


5 January 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 232.25
1 Week % Change:   - 0.8%
4 Week % Change:   + 0.7%
52 Week % Change:   +10.0%
200 Day Moving Average: 217.17 +15.1
52-Week High: 239.95    -2%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +21%

A New Bull Market Being Birthed - Continued
We continue to observe conditions that suggest a new Agri-Commodity
bull market may be developing. Agri-Food Price Index rose to 24% above
the October low. Average gain from lows for the 18 Agri-Commodities we
follow is 25%. On an individual commodity basis 9 of 18, or 50%, are more
than 20% above their 52-week lows. We would like to see that percentage
rise to  60% before declaring victory. Our statistical price trend measures
are running 7 of 18, or 39%, positive. That measure lags considerably.
Confirmation of bullish view would be that percentage above 50%.
Basically, all seems to be heading in the right direction.

For 2017, possible winner is wheat. Corn is bet with some risk.
Soybeans looking better due to flooding in Argentina.

Agri-Equities were a winner in 2016. See link below. With 90% probability
of U.S. equities being down in 2017, we are not quite so optimistic for
results in 2016. But, Agri-Equities should again perform better than most stocks.


Link to Investment Scoreboard:  2016 Scoreboard

17 December 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 239.95
1 Week % Change:   + 4.0%
4 Week % Change:   +15.5%
52 Week % Change:   +13.9%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.78 +24.2
52-Week High: 239.95    0%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +24%

A New Bull Market Being Birthed?
Rally in Agri-Commodity prices continues. Agri-Food Price Index up 24%
from low, and up 14% from a year ago. 50% of Agri-Commodities are now
up more than 20% from their 52-week lows. U.S. exports continue to be
smoking hot, though we are somewhat worried about the insane dollar rally.
Commodities increasingly look like an important investment theme for 2017.
Internet and technology were so last year.

Agri-Equities continue to dominate performance game.

For 2016 to date:
      Agri-Equities: +17.2%      
      S&P 500: +10.5%
      NASDAQ: + 8.6%
Agri-Equities have done twice that of the NASDAQ Composite!

Leaders this year:
FMC +47%
DE +33%
DAR +31%
AGCO +28%
ADM +27%
                                                       

10 December 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 230.68
1 Week % Change:   + 5.4%
4 Week % Change:   +11.4%
52 Week % Change:   + 6.8%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.22 +15.1
52-Week High: 232.29  - 1%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +19%

A New Bull Market?
In last month Agri-Commodity prices have rallied strongly. Agri-Food Price Index
is now up 19% from the 52-week low in first week of October. That rise is
approaching the generally accepted 20% that is assumed to indicate a new bull
market. On average the individual Agri-Commodity prices are up 31% from their
lows. 8 of the 18, or 44%, Agri-Commodity prices are up more than 20%,
even ignoring rounding.

All of this is extremely positive, and suggests that Agri-Commodity prices are
attempting to birth a new bull market.

For 2016 to date:
     Agri-Equities: +18%        
     S&P 500: +11%
     NASDAQ: + 9%

Clearly, Agri-Equities had done far better than most other equity markets.
However, we do admit to being worried about the impact of a U.S. interest rate
increase on Wednesday.

Web cast at top of page have been updated.


19 November 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 204.4
1 Week % Change:   - 1.3%
4 Week % Change:   + 5.6%
52 Week % Change:   - 9.7%
200 Day Moving Average: 214.7  -10.3
52-Week High: 232.29  -12%
52-Week Low: 193.39 + 6%

Major Grain Index($): 95.91
1 Week Change: + 2.4%
Low( 7 Oct 16): 89.31 + 7%

Immediately above is our Major Grain Index($). Last week that index of US
cash corn, soybean, and wheat rose by 2.4%. Major grains have been strong for
several weeks. Export numbers continue especially strong. Concern at present
time is the dollar rally since the Trump victory. No economic justification for
that rally exists. That said, the potential damage from juvenile traders running
rampant in foreign currency markets is hard to quantify. Dollar rally will likely
exhaust itself by 14 December FOMC meeting.   

For the year-to-date:
    Agri-Equities: +11.0%
    Tier Two Agri-Equities: +12.3%
    Tier One Agri-Equities: +10.0%                      
    S&P 500: + 6.7%
    NASDAQ: + 6.3%

For month-to-date:
    FMC +15%
    BG + 9%
    PAHC +9%
    AGU + 6%


5 November 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 212.15
1 Week % Change:   - 0.4%
4 Week % Change:   + 9.7%
52 Week % Change:   - 5.3%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.43  -3.3
52-Week High: 232.29  - 9%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +10%

As we explain in November letter, Agri-Food Price Index seems to have
broken out of the inverted parabolic pattern. Up move of almost ten percent
in past four weeks is very impressive. In U.S. cash market none of the major
grains, corn, soybeans, or HRW, have made a weekly closing low in 5 weeks.
US cash oats hit new 52-week high, and that is a good sign.
In animal proteins, only pork/hogs at low.


A web cast on Gold & Agri  5 Dec 2016
To hear web cast:
Gold & Agri
PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
BITGOLD
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email at ned@agrifoodvalueview.com
PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Island Earth  

Recent web cast with Korelin Economics
8 November .
On Agriculture