|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
26 September 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 228.6 +1.8% for week
Signal Oscillator: Buy Signal for week ended 25 September
Signal Oscillator: 22%
Prices, with the exception of meats, discarded concerns on China, and
generally strengthened. U.S. butter +15% to a new high, Rice +3% to
a new 52-week high, Palm oil +7%, Sugar +7%, Sorghum +5%
Both U.S. corn and soybeans finished up for the week
Situation in beef, pork, and chicken is bothersome. Australian beef prices have
been at record highs due to Asian demand. However, the high dollar is
causing serious problem for U.S. exports.
Agri-Equities, like much of the market, continue to struggle with end of quarter
selling. Funds do not want them in portfolios for end of September statements.
We expect this selling to abate soon, and begin to gain traction beginning next
week or the following one. With collapse of biotechnology sector,
sellers may move on to that group. AGCO and FMC are both interesting.
20 September 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 224.7 -1.9% for week
Signal Oscillator: 10% Oversold
Prices had been acting well through Wednesday. However, conditions
simply fell apart on late Thursday and Friday. Collapse of equity market turned
traders sour. Some went back to trading the China is “crashing” nonsense.
Bright spot was rice at $12,95, and a new 52-week high. U.S. soybeans were
hit with selling, -6.8% for week. That selling is now seriously over done. Palm oil
was an exception, rising 1.9% for week. Selling on China fears should abate
by end of month as no validity exists in the believe that China’s consumption
of food is stock market sensitive.
While Agri-Equities were hit too late in the week, feels like they might be developing
some traction. We did two web casts this week, financialsurvival.com and
financialsense.com. In both we talked about AGCO and FMC which we like.
Continue to believe that Agri-Equities will begin to improve end
of month or early October.
12 September 2015
Another writing weekend as Interim Comments go out on Monday.
Signal oscillator for Agri-Food Price Index has turned up from deeply
oversold. May give a buy signal this week.
WASDE on Friday may have turned the psychology on corn.
An up week this week on US cash corn would be extremely positive.
5 September 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 224.13 -0.5% for week
Signal Oscillator: 0% for 3rd week Deeply oversold!
We are watching closely for the day the Chinese economy completely
disappears from the world. That seems to be the view of most traders.
At the same time we are seeing near nonsensical forecasts of Chinese
grain production. Dollar continues to be a major problem, but we
expect that situation to reverse in the weeks ahead. Remember, same people
that had crazy forecasts for the U.S. stock market are the same
ones bullish on the dollar.
For the week: Butter +4.8% Sugar +3.4% Oats +3.2% Rice +2.2%
US Hogs -6.2% US Broilers -5.1% (Why do they keep growing hogs?)
Agri-Equities were not immune to the collapse of the U.S. stock market.
However, some good news in the data. In July 13% of Agri-Equities
performed better than the market. That percentage rose to 31% in August.
For September, admittedly a short period, percentage is 50%.
Relative strength improvement usually precedes better performance.
September newsletter went out this past week. Focus on China’s grain policies.
FMC may be a stock to look at.
28 August 2015
This weekend is a writing weekend as September issue goes
out on the 3rd. Will be back here next week.
22 August 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 230.00 -1.4% for week
Signal Oscillator: 0% Oversold
Weekly Oscillator: 0% Oversold
Only one adequate descriptor for market actions last week is not one we can say
print. Actually, until late in the week the index had been showing some strength, but
that was wiped out late in the week. As the week progressed the talk on China got
progressively worse, and emotions were clearly dominant. Will discuss China grain
policy in September letter, and not as bearish as is believed by many. U.S. cash
corn for the week actually ticked up slightly while U.S. cash soybeans were off
almost 5%. For the week: Butter +15% Eggs -11%
We also note that “noone” seems to believe the USDA estimate for U.S. corn
yields for harvest about to start. On the ground estimates by crop tours
continue to estimate 164+ bu/acre rather that USDA estimate of almost
69 bu/acre. A possibility that USDA may reduce estimate significantly
U.S. corn harvest estimate in next WASDE, Friday 9 Sep.
Combination of equity market collapse and “China is crashing” group think
were rough on the Agri-Equities. Big problem was DE about which we recently
expressed corn in recent letter, and what the company said. Sales of
Agri-Equipment will not improve in rest of the year and market did not like that
. In next month the Agri-Equities will be in deeply over sold territory.
Will talk about that in Interim Comments which go out Monday.
We have updated the sample newsletters available on the site.
8 August 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 233.61 -0.4% for week
Signal Oscillator: 12% Extremely Over Sold
52-Week High: 246.6
52-Week Low: 222.6
Agri-Food Price Index has now fully unwound the over bought condition.
Index is now positioned for a buy signal. With WASDE being released on
Wednesday Agri-Commodity markets could face some kind of surprise. Traders do
seem a little nervous about this report. For the week: U.S. corn +1.8% U.S.
soybeans +1.6% US$ Malaysian palm oil -6.5% US$ World sugar -3.9%
Equities, and that includes Agri-Equities, continue to an have unpleasant experience.
Month-to-date: Agri-Equities -1.8% S&P 500 -1.2% NASDAQ -1.7% That
said, Agri-Equities do seem to be slightly improving relative to the market.
For month-to-date: AGCO +4% DE +2%
25 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 236.6 -1.5% for week
Signal Oscillator: 62% Neutral
Excluding U.S. eggs, Signal Oscillator: 52%
Excluding U.S. eggs, Weekly Oscillator: 0%
The Street, near unanimously, concluded last week that Chinese economy
was crashing into oblivion. As a consequence, Chinese will buy NO
commodities of any kind. They will cease eating. With that set of brilliant thinking,
Street went on a rampage in commodities, selling them all. Reality could
be somewhat different. For example, China actually bought 300 thousand
tons of soybeans last week in the U.S.
U.S. egg prices, up 20% for week, returned to a new high as only now are laying
flocks starting to be rebuilt after the bird flu outbreak. If we exclude eggs,
the signal oscillator is weakening rapidly. Agri-Food Price Index had been
seriously over bought, and that conditions was due to be unwound.
13 of 16 Agri-Commodities down last week.
With China collapsing into oblivion, clearly all stocks doing business with or
benefitting from business with China were sold with gusto. In general stocks
were sold last week, but Agri-Equities were especially punished. For the
month-to-date Agri-Equities are down 4.9%, and that is creating some opportunities.
Some to look at include SPU, JBSAY, FMC, AGCO
Is your portfolio ready for PEAK FOOD?
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and profiting from PEAK FOOD. Recent web cast on Peak Food
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|PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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|PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two