|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
25 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 236.6 -1.5% for week
Signal Oscillator: 62% Neutral
Excluding U.S. eggs, Signal Oscillator: 52%
Excluding U.S. eggs, Weekly Oscillator: 0%
The Street, near unanimously, concluded last week that Chinese economy
was crashing into oblivion. As a consequence, Chinese will buy NO
commodities of any kind. They will cease eating. With that set of brilliant thinking,
Street went on a rampage in commodities, selling them all. Reality could
be somewhat different. For example, China actually bought 300 thousand
tons of soybeans last week in the U.S.
U.S. egg prices, up 20% for week, returned to a new high as only now are laying
flocks starting to be rebuilt after the bird flu outbreak. If we exclude eggs,
the signal oscillator is weakening rapidly. Agri-Food Price Index had been
seriously over bought, and that conditions was due to be unwound.
13 of 16 Agri-Commodities down last week.
With China collapsing into oblivion, clearly all stocks doing business with or
benefitting from business with China were sold with gusto. In general stocks
were sold last week, but Agri-Equities were especially punished. For the
month-to-date Agri-Equities are down 4.9%, and that is creating some opportunities.
Some to look at include SPU, JBSAY, FMC, AGCO
18 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 240.1 -1.4 % for week
Last short-term high: 246.4
Signal Oscillator: 86%
Weekly Oscillator: 61%
Agri-Food Price Index had been over bought for several weeks as U.S. cash
corn hit 52-week high and other grains followed it higher. Grain prices were
due to soften after a strong run. We do note that the supply bulls/price bears
are still alive. U.S. wheat low was week ending 1 May, almost 3 months ago,
while U.S. soybean price low was week of 22 May, almost two months past.
Move of grain prices starting to worry animal producers.
Equity markets were fixated on the GOOG and TWTR. With GOOG adding $65
billion to market capitalization in one day we can safely say that “irrational
exuberance” has returned to the market. At the same time, per the gurus on
the Street, the Chinese economy is collapsing. None of the 1.2 billion people
in China will eat as their stock market is cratering.
Preferences: SPU DAR Wilmar International FMC JBSAY AGCO
11 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 160.8 -0.3% for week
Signal Oscillator: 97% Over Bought
New 52-week Highs
U.S. cash corn
U.S. cash sorghum
Canadian $ Canola
U.S. cash corn broke above $4 in the previous week, as we have long said it would.
Test was on Friday when USDA released latest WASDE. Sorry price bears, you
were wrong. Less corn and soybeans in U.S. this year due to weather issues
and strong demand. We have not read one report that was optimistic on
weather for crops in fields. While we would be cautious in expecting prices to rise
significantly, higher grain prices are in our future.
While the above is bullish for the Agri-Equities, the Street has decided that China is
about to collapse. That ridiculous thinking was hard on the Agri-Equities.
We do observe that the 1.2+billion Chinese are likely to continue eating every day.
They will, however, buy far less toy watches from AAPL.
For the month-to-date: Agri-Equities: -2.9% CALM +4% MON +2% SYT +2%
WE like the following: Wilmar International, DAR, FMC, JBSAY, SPU
Interim Comments go out on Tuesday.
4 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 244.2 +1.6% for week
Signal Oscillator: 85% Over Bought
U.S. cash corn went over $4/bu last week, and that is great news. Test of that
movement will be on Friday, 10 July, when USDA releases next WASDE.
While doubtful anything meaningful will be in that report, it could further
discourage the supply bulls/price bears. But, with U.S. cash corn closing
out week at a 52-week high, traders may be increasingly
reluctant to short corn.
For the week: Corn +9% Sorghum +7% Sugar +7%
Rice +5% Soybeans +3%
For the year-to-date:
Agri-Equities +11.1% S&P 500 +0.9% NASDAQ +5.8%
Agri-Equities are likely to continue performing better than
the techno/junk the Street is pushing.
July issued of Agri-Food Value View emailed on Friday, 3 July.
20 June 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 233.7 -1.7% for week
Signal Oscillator: 67% Neutral
Most of the weakness this past week was due to the price of U.S. eggs correcting.
Eggs -21% Without eggs, index would have been off slightly. Canadian Canola
at new 52-week high due to exceptionally weak crops in Canada, major exporter,
and EU. Weather is not helping. High water on Midwestern U.S
rivers preventing movement of grains.
Major argument on weather damage to U.S. wheat and those corn and soybeans that
have been planted. How much not planted? How much damaged by wet weather and
needs replanting? How much will just not be planted? Thus far, traders are
in completed denial, ignoring the weather. Yes, rain is good for crops,
but not 10 inches!
Major question is if the traders are right and the U.S. will have bumper corn and
soybean crops, why are the commercials net long corn, soybeans, and wheat?
Do they know something?
Speculation in equity markets remains rampant, and ignoring coming U.S. interest rate
increases. Last week traders clearly jumped into the NASDAQ. Some firming
in Agri-Equities. For the month-to-date: Agri-Equities -0.5% S&P 500 +0.1%
JBSAY +8% PAHC +6% SPU +5% AGCO +4%
6 June 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 241.3 +1.2% for week
Signal Oscillator: 100% Overbought
U.S. egg prices had been masking the over sold condition in the rest of
the Agri-Commodities. As egg prices were essentially flat last week,
the gain in the index was due to the rest of the Agri-Commodities.
Two grains were particularly noticeable last week, and may mean the end of the
overly bullish harvest forecasts. Canola harvest, largely in EU and Canada,
is now expected to be down dramatically. Canadian Canola prices, C$513,
hit a new 52-week high. U.S. oat prices rose 9%. That grain is often a leading
indicator of grain prices as it is the smallest grain with a futures contract.
WASDE will be released on Wednesday, and attention will be focused on
corn acreage. Considerable belief that USDA forecast too high. Also for the week:
U.S. wheat +5% US$ Canola +5% US$ palm oil +4% US$ Corn +2%
Agri-Equities tend to under perform at beginning of month, and that has been
the case so far in June. For the month-to-date: Agri-Equities -1.4%
S&P 500 -0.7% JBSAY +2%(Buy under $11) AGCO +1%
23 May 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 237.1 +0.9% for week
Signal Oscillator: 95% Over Bought
While the index was up last week, all of that increase was due to U.S. egg
prices which have risen 120% in the last month as a consequence of
a bird flu outbreak. Without egg prices, index would have been down
about the amount it was up. Given that the index is strongly over bought,
some short-term moderation had been expected. In general, weather in not
cooperating. Too much rain in U.S. wheat belt, for example, and not
enough in Canada and Russia.
For the week: Eggs +46% Wheat +3% Cotton -5% Sugar -5%
Agri-Equities continuing to have a good month. Index of Agri-Equities continues at all
time high. Thus far in May 80% of Agri-Equities are performing better than the
market. For May to date: Agri-Equities +8% S&P 500 +2% NASDAQ +3%
Month-to-date: SYT +32% CALM +29%(Would be careful with that one.)
Wilmar hit a new 52-week high.
We have updated the sample newsletter offered above.
17 May 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 235.0 +3.1% for week
Signal Oscillator: 67% Neutral
Buy Signal: Week ended 12 May
Agri-Food Price Index up 6% in three weeks. For the week: Eggs +37%
Wheat +7% Feeder Steers +5% Hogs +4%
Impact of bird flue so far minimum on shell eggs. Panic buying of broken eggs, for
food products, is moving those prices up. Major resistance for U.S. corn price
is $4. Pressures building to move up through that level.
$4 will then become floor, support, for U.S. corn.
Agri-Food Stock Index up 7.8% month-to-date to hit a new all time high.
For month to date: Agri-Equities +7.8% S&P 500 +1.8% NASDAQ +2.1%
SYT +31% CALM +23% PAHC +15% DAR +12% ADM +9%
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and profiting from PEAK FOOD. Recent web cast on Peak Food
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is now the dominant trend and will
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Peak Food: An Introduction
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