|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
4 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 244.2 +1.6% for week
Signal Oscillator: 85% Over Bought
U.S. cash corn went over $4/bu last week, and that is great news. Test of that
movement will be on Friday, 10 July, when USDA releases next WASDE.
While doubtful anything meaningful will be in that report, it could further
discourage the supply bulls/price bears. But, with U.S. cash corn closing
out week at a 52-week high, traders may be increasingly
reluctant to short corn.
For the week: Corn +9% Sorghum +7% Sugar +7%
Rice +5% Soybeans +3%
For the year-to-date:
Agri-Equities +11.1% S&P 500 +0.9% NASDAQ +5.8%
Agri-Equities are likely to continue performing better than
the techno/junk the Street is pushing.
July issued of Agri-Food Value View emailed on Friday, 3 July.
20 June 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 233.7 -1.7% for week
Signal Oscillator: 67% Neutral
Most of the weakness this past week was due to the price of U.S. eggs correcting.
Eggs -21% Without eggs, index would have been off slightly. Canadian Canola
at new 52-week high due to exceptionally weak crops in Canada, major exporter,
and EU. Weather is not helping. High water on Midwestern U.S
rivers preventing movement of grains.
Major argument on weather damage to U.S. wheat and those corn and soybeans that
have been planted. How much not planted? How much damaged by wet weather and
needs replanting? How much will just not be planted? Thus far, traders are
in completed denial, ignoring the weather. Yes, rain is good for crops,
but not 10 inches!
Major question is if the traders are right and the U.S. will have bumper corn and
soybean crops, why are the commercials net long corn, soybeans, and wheat?
Do they know something?
Speculation in equity markets remains rampant, and ignoring coming U.S. interest rate
increases. Last week traders clearly jumped into the NASDAQ. Some firming
in Agri-Equities. For the month-to-date: Agri-Equities -0.5% S&P 500 +0.1%
JBSAY +8% PAHC +6% SPU +5% AGCO +4%
6 June 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 241.3 +1.2% for week
Signal Oscillator: 100% Overbought
U.S. egg prices had been masking the over sold condition in the rest of
the Agri-Commodities. As egg prices were essentially flat last week,
the gain in the index was due to the rest of the Agri-Commodities.
Two grains were particularly noticeable last week, and may mean the end of the
overly bullish harvest forecasts. Canola harvest, largely in EU and Canada,
is now expected to be down dramatically. Canadian Canola prices, C$513,
hit a new 52-week high. U.S. oat prices rose 9%. That grain is often a leading
indicator of grain prices as it is the smallest grain with a futures contract.
WASDE will be released on Wednesday, and attention will be focused on
corn acreage. Considerable belief that USDA forecast too high. Also for the week:
U.S. wheat +5% US$ Canola +5% US$ palm oil +4% US$ Corn +2%
Agri-Equities tend to under perform at beginning of month, and that has been
the case so far in June. For the month-to-date: Agri-Equities -1.4%
S&P 500 -0.7% JBSAY +2%(Buy under $11) AGCO +1%
23 May 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 237.1 +0.9% for week
Signal Oscillator: 95% Over Bought
While the index was up last week, all of that increase was due to U.S. egg
prices which have risen 120% in the last month as a consequence of
a bird flu outbreak. Without egg prices, index would have been down
about the amount it was up. Given that the index is strongly over bought,
some short-term moderation had been expected. In general, weather in not
cooperating. Too much rain in U.S. wheat belt, for example, and not
enough in Canada and Russia.
For the week: Eggs +46% Wheat +3% Cotton -5% Sugar -5%
Agri-Equities continuing to have a good month. Index of Agri-Equities continues at all
time high. Thus far in May 80% of Agri-Equities are performing better than the
market. For May to date: Agri-Equities +8% S&P 500 +2% NASDAQ +3%
Month-to-date: SYT +32% CALM +29%(Would be careful with that one.)
Wilmar hit a new 52-week high.
We have updated the sample newsletter offered above.
17 May 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 235.0 +3.1% for week
Signal Oscillator: 67% Neutral
Buy Signal: Week ended 12 May
Agri-Food Price Index up 6% in three weeks. For the week: Eggs +37%
Wheat +7% Feeder Steers +5% Hogs +4%
Impact of bird flue so far minimum on shell eggs. Panic buying of broken eggs, for
food products, is moving those prices up. Major resistance for U.S. corn price
is $4. Pressures building to move up through that level.
$4 will then become floor, support, for U.S. corn.
Agri-Food Stock Index up 7.8% month-to-date to hit a new all time high.
For month to date: Agri-Equities +7.8% S&P 500 +1.8% NASDAQ +2.1%
SYT +31% CALM +23% PAHC +15% DAR +12% ADM +9%
9 May 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 228.0 +2.0% for week
Signal Oscillator: 33%
Weekly Oscillator: 84%
Buy signal triggered.
Last week Agri-Food Price Index rose 2%, one of the strongest weeks in years.
That action moved signal oscillator up through 20% creating a buy signal on
the Agri-Food Price Index. We strive to use cash prices where available.
So, despite some flailing in the grain futures, the cash markets are strengthening.
26+ million chickens/turkeys now casualties of bird flu, and likely to go higher.
Not yet impacting prices of eggs or broilers, but both in a seasonal rise.
For the week: Eggs +13% Butter +7% Hogs +5% Sugar +4%
Agri-Equities are having a good month, a good year-to-date, and have had
a good year. Currently index is at a new all time high. For the month-to-date:
Agri-Equities +4.5% S&P 500 +1.5% 60% of Agri-Equities outperforming
the market. Big news last week was MON’s bid for SYT. While SYT
will need to spurn the suitor initially, in the end MON will sweeten bid
and SYT will then accept the proposal. That does seem to be best guess.
We added FMC to our list with publication of the May newsletter.
For month-to-date: SYT +28% KUB +16% JBSAY +8% PAHC +7%
Interim Comments will be emailed on Friday.
25 April 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 222.6 0.3%
Signal Oscillator: 2% Extremely Over Sold
Markets continued to be driven this past week by extremes in psychology. Funds
HATE Agri-Commodities and LOVE a handful of NASDAQ techno junk.
That extreme situation drove down some Agri-Commodities. Example, oat prices
were driven down 8%. In contrast, cotton +5% hogs +4% soybeans flat
This extreme in psychology can continue for a while,
but it is moving toward a massive turning point.
Agri-Equities hit an all time high on Friday’s close. For month-to-date: Agri-Equities
+4.5% S&P 500 +2.4% SPU +25% JBSAY +20% MON +5%
We also recorded a webcast for www.financialsurvivalnetwork.com
Can be heard at their site.
Interim Comments emailed out Friday.
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18 April 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 223.2 +0.2% for week
Signal Oscillator: 5% Over Sold
Big news for Agri-Commodities was with the dollar, which has broken down
out of a parabolic rise. Dollar now destined to retrace at least 50% of advance.
Falling dollar will remove a major negative from Agri-Commodity prices.
For the week: Sugar +3% Palm oil +3% Hogs +3% Butter +3%
Broilers +3% Both corn and soybeans up for week. Loser was wheat -8%
Agri-Equities were down for the week, but certainly did better than the
collapsing popular stocks. For the year-to-date Agri-Equities +4.6% versus S&P
500 +1.1% NASDAQ +4.2% For April-to-date Agri-Equities +2.6%
and 80% performing better than market. For April-to-date: JBSAY +17%
SPU +8% BG +4% MON +4%
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