The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:

21 November 2014

Agri-Food Price Index:   228.59 +1.0% for week
Signal Oscillator:   41%   Neutral

With Northern Hemisphere harvest essentially complete, news on the harvest became
less of a factor. Cash markets did improve nicely during the week. Both US cash corn
and soybeans were up this past week. US eggs +7.6%   US oats +7.4%
US$ palm oil +5.0% With exception of the beef complex, signs of improvement are
developing. World sugar trading at $15.3 with 52 week high at $15.6.
Cotton at $0.63 with 52 week high at $0.66.

US stock market indices roared last week as funds pushed large favorites higher,
primarily NASDAQ 100. However, new lows dominated new highs. US stock
market at HIGH risk. Below is an article to read on this topic. That said, 50% of the
Agri-Equities have performed better than the market month to date which is an
improvement from earlier in the month. For the month: SYT +15%,   ZTS +10%,
CALM +6%   ADM which has been crushed this month, -20%,
is one to start

Article on US stock market to read:    
 High Risk US Market

16 November 2015
Past weekend was a writing weekend.
We will post again on Saturday, 21 Nov
SPU has been deleted from Tier Two list effective immediately.

7 November 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   225.23
For Week:   -0.2%
For Last 4 Weeks:   +1.4%
Signal Oscillator:   38%   Neutral

Underlying tone of Agri-Commodities continues to improve. Currently,
5 of 17 Agri-Commodities have positive statistical trends. While over valued
dollar continues to be a problem,  the strength in local commodity prices is
starting to show through. US hog prices have collapsed by 25% in two weeks.
Without hog prices, A-F Price Index would have been up +0.5% this past week.
While it may not feel like it, US cash corn price trend continues to strengthen.
Continue to believe that corn prices will be the surprise in 2016.

Speculative frenzy in the NASDAQ 100 continues to dominate the stock market.
With US interest rates set to rise on 16 December, the punishment in that sector
will be brutal. Agri-Equities up 1.1% month to date versus S&P 500 +1.0%
Big question now is will any mergers take place among the seed and pesticide
companies. SYT is most likely to be merged with someone else, but who?

24 October 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   223.43   +0.2% for week
Signal Oscillator:   8%   Deeply oversold

Fear of China “crashing” seems to be dissipating as index up for second week.
Seeing positive developments in both beef and pork. Increasingly appears
most Agri-Commodities have put in major bottoms. For the week:
US beef index +4.5%   US feeder steers +3.3%   US pork +2.6%
US corn +2.3%  US cash corn highest level since first of September.
US harvest approaching end so focus will now turn to demand.

Agri-Equities are having a good month, +8.2% versus +8.1% for S&P 500
That said, US equity market is a high risk situation that could be reversed
rather dramatically this coming week.  56% of Agri-Equities performing better
than the market. For the month-to-date:   SPU +29%*   Wilmar +26%*
KUB +14%   ADM +13%   FMC +11%*

* = Under valued

17 October 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   222.92   +0.3% for the week
Signal Oscillator  2%  Deeply oversold

Fear of China “collapsing” seems to be dissipating. At the same time the
dollar has begun to weaken. Those two negatives had been major depressants
on Agri-Commodity prices. While neither is yet a positive, at least they are
becoming less negative. U.S. cash soybeans were up again this past
week(+1.6%) after rising the previous week. Winners for the week were
beef. US beef index +6.0%, US feeder cattle +5.4%, US cotton +3.7%
Rice was down hard(-6.8%) as some kind of a correction was long overdue.

With the lessening of fears on China the Agri-Equities are having a good month. On
average for month to date: Agri-Equities +6.0%, S&P +5.9%, NASDAQ +5.8%   
For the month to date, 56% of Agri-Equities performing better than the market.    
SPU +24%  Wilmar +18%   ADM +11% CALM +11%

10 October 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   221.08   -0.6% for the week
Signal Oscillator:   0%   Deeply Oversold

Two weeks ago we were fairly happy with the way prices had been developing.
However, the continued collapse of prices for animal proteins, eggs, butter,
beef, and chicken, erased that good feeling. In last four weeks, US eggs -28%,
US beef index -13%, US feeder steers -12%, butter -11%, US broilers -5%.
US hog prices only one showing attempt at bottom. Since end of May US
beef index down 25%. While part of this is due to the over valued U.S. dollar
pricing US meats out of global markets, some of this action does not seem to
have a rational explanation. See comments in
Interim Comments due out
Wednesday, 14 October.

On a positive note, WASDE released Friday reduced harvest forecast for
nearly every grain. Over the last four weeks the price for every non meat
commodity, including grains with exception of oats. is up. Sugar was big winner
up 31% in last four weeks.

Agri-Equities, on average, are up 4.9% thus far in October, matching the
S&P 500 and beating the NASDAQ.  50% of the Agri-Equities are beating
the market, and all but two have risen thus far in October.
Wilmar +15%   FMC +14%   ADM +10%   DE +8%

26 September 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:    228.6    +1.8% for week
Signal Oscillator:   Buy Signal for week ended 25 September
Signal Oscillator:   22%

Prices, with the exception of meats, discarded concerns on China, and
generally strengthened. U.S. butter +15% to a new high, Rice +3% to
a new 52-week high, Palm oil +7%, Sugar +7%, Sorghum +5%
Both U.S. corn and soybeans finished up for the week

Situation in beef, pork, and chicken is bothersome. Australian beef prices have
been at record highs due to Asian demand. However, the high dollar is
causing serious problem for U.S. exports.

Agri-Equities, like much of the market, continue to struggle with end of quarter
selling. Funds do not want them in portfolios for end of September statements.
We expect this selling to abate soon, and begin to gain traction beginning next
week or the following one. With collapse of biotechnology sector,
sellers may move on to that group. AGCO and FMC are both interesting.

Our latest webcast.
To hear our latest webcast use this link:
Schmidt Webcast
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Island Earth