The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:

23 August 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 241.2 +1.1% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 5% Oversold    Weekly Oscillator: 14% Oversold
That oscillator has turned up is encouraging. Over past four weeks:
Butter +18% Corn 9% Soybeans +7% Those gains are also encouraging.
Interim Comments emailed to day. Weather damage to Canadian wheat and
canola discussed. Those crops will be ~25% less this year. How much smaller
will be the planted acres of corn in Spring 2015 continues as a major issue.
Agri-Equities up 1.9% thus far in August. JBSAY +9% South America not
on Russian ban on meat imports. CALM +7% ZTS +6% ADM +6%

16 August 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 238.49 -1.0% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 0% Deeply Oversold Weekly Oscillator: 0% Deeply Oversold
Pessimism continues high, and continues to spread throughout Agri-Commodities.
HOWEVER, second week in a row with cash prices for both U.S. corn and
soybeans up. Cost to produce corn in U.S. averages $4.3 versus prices of ~$3.74.
This situation means that fewer acres will be planted in corn in South America
and in the U.S. Prices will rise due to this situation.
Agri-Equities having a good month with individual situations dominating.
For the month to date Agri-Equities up 1.7% vs. S&P 500 +1.3%.
CALM +8% JBSAY +8% ADM +7%
New 52-week highs: JBSAY   ZTS

9 August 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 240.95 -1.8% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 0% Deeply Oversold Weekly Oscillator: 0% Deeply Oversold
We had thought the previous weak might have been the peak in pessimism. That
was not to be as the pessimism simply moved out of corn and soybeans into other
Agri-Commodities. Corn was flat for week and soybeans were actually up.
Strong pessimism continues, and then the Russian food embargo hit. That
is an example of how ignorant are futures traders. Cattle futures were limit down
on Thursday & Friday. BUT, U.S. has not exported significant amounts of beef
to Russia since 2012. Per USDA, Russia only ranks numbers 23 for U.S. food
exports. We will publish new CORN Comments about Wednesday.

Despite the above, Agri-Equities moved up late in the week. On average, up 0.4%
for the month. 63% of Agri-Equities performing better than market thus far in August.
ADM +6%  CALM +5% JBS +3%

2 August 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 245.3 -2.5% for week.
Signal Oscillator: 2% Deeply Oversold Weekly Oscillator: 0% Oversold
Was a brutal weak in the grain markets this past week. Massive selling by
large speculative funds. Bearishness within that group could be at a maximum.
Good chance last weak was peak of bearishness.
Our research is now focused strongly on answering one question.
How high will the price of corn rise in the coming year?
Agri-Equities dragged down by bearishness. But, Agri-Equities sure
look better for the future than Techno/Junk on NASDAQ.       
August issue going out 3 August.
August Sale: One year subscription 25% off till 8 August.
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Invoice will be sent to you.     Updated sample letters.        

26 July 2014
Agri-Food Price Index:  251.54 +0.2% for week
Signal Oscillator: 2% Deeply Oversold  Weekly Oscillator: 6% Oversold
Negative impact of U.S. corn prices seems to waning. Soybean prices up for week,
and wheat trying to stage turnaround. Beef still smoking hot, but broiler prices
are weak. In Interim Comments sent out on Thursday we began lengthy
discussion on potential for corn prices to be significantly higher in 2015.
Carnage in grain prices still hanging over Agri-Equities. But,
turnaround in corn prices will change the psychology from negative to positive.

19 July 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 251.0 -0.9 for week
Signal Oscillator: 18% Oversold Weekly Oscillator: 0% Oversold
Negative tone in grain futures spilled over to some other cash markets. Attitude
in futures is "Sell it!". More than half of U.S. corn farmers cannot make money at
~$3.75 corn. Corn prices could rise dramatically next year because of that situation.
Strongest eggs +9% butter +5% (new high)
Agri-Equities lagging market due to weak corn prices. But, some individual stocks
doing well so far in July.  JBSAY +14%  ADM +9%

12 July 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 253.3 -1.5% for week
Signal Oscillator: 18% Oversold Weekly Oscillator: 0% Oversold
Traders crushed both U.S. corn and soybean futures this past week. As we
will begin to discuss in this week's Interim Comments, this artificially low price for
corn will set it up for a major rally. This time next year U.S. corn price could be
twice the current level. The dramatic move downward in these prices pushed
Agri-Equities lower. Exceptions for month-to-date: ADM +9% JBSAY +4%

5 July 2014
Agri-Food Price Index: 257.13 +0.4% for week.
Buy Signal week ending 27 June  Weekly oscillator: 41% Neutral
Eggs +8%, Sugar +6% Oats +6% Continued frantic selling in futures for
corn and soybeans this past week. Corn is extremely OVERSOLD.
Corn likely putting in major, multi year bottom.
Agri-Equities 0.8% month to date. Agri-Equities generally lag in early part of
month/quarter as funds scramble to buy Techno/Junk on NASDAQ.
ADM +4% PAHC +3% ZTS +3%

We are doing significant research and writing on the topic of corn prices in the U.S.
 That work is now appearing in our newsletters. After the embargo periods ends
we will publish them here. Use this link(13 Aug):    
 CORN Comments
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