The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:

29 May 2016
Writing June newsletter
Goes out on Friday.
US cash soybeans and world sugar hit new 52-week highs!
US cash corn ends week at $4.12
Trends are strengthening.

22 May 2016

Agri-Food Price Index: 220.17
1 Week % Change:   +0.4%
4 Week % Change:   +1.8%
52 Week % Change:   -7.2%
200 Day Moving Average: 220.14

This past week the old story about the dollar soaring as the FOMC raises interest
rates was reincarnated. Street needed something to trade, and the dollar was
chosen. That action put a lot of pressure on commodity prices, but by end
of week the cash markets were ignoring that flailing about. Both US cash
soybeans and World sugar hit 52-week highs. Our measure of US cash corn
closed the week at $3.95 as four dollar corn is increasingly accepted.

La Nina, which seems to now be arriving, is gaining attention. It should produce
hotter and dryer conditions across the northern half of the U.S. and bring rains
to the Pacific. Consequence should be pressure on U.S. crops and more
palm oil in Malaysia.

MON was the talk as Bayer seems to be making an offer for the company.
BASF might provide an alternative to Bayer. FMC is benefitting from all this,
and is likely to continue to do so.

Restructuring of JBS with primary trading for stock of international operations
moving to the U.S. is strong positive. Will be only major, international animal
protein company available for trading. Note though that restructuring will not
happen quickly, and time frame is not known. ADR in U.S. trades as JBSAY.

7 May 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   219.06   For week: -1.8%
200-Day Moving Average:   220.82
52 Week High:   244.2
52 Week Low:   210.6
One Year % Change:   -3.9%
Signal Oscillator:   78%   Overbought

After four straight weeks of advance and US Dec 16 corn above $4, some
type of consolidation or correction was to be expected. That happened this past
week. In a short period of time US farmers took advantage of the higher corn
prices by selling an extremely large amount of corn. One large farmer was
reported as selling 50% of his old corn in that rally. A lot of corn has moved from
farmers to buyers. That may be good. Will discuss this in length in Interim
Comments on 14th.  Hogs/Pork were about the only strength last week.
WASDE out on Tuesday. Has the potential to be negative.

First of month is often rough on the Agri-Equities and the dollar was strong
this past week. First Tier Agri-Equities off 2% thus far in May. We do think
that much of that will be regained. FMC has been strong, up 11% this month.
With the dollar in a bear market as Federal Reserve is not likely to raise rates next
month, Agri-Equities have a favorable outlook.

Updated web cast at top of page.

23 April 2016

Agri-Food Price Index:   217.07   +1.3% for week
52-Week % Change:   -2.9%
200-Day Moving Average:   221.55
52-Week High:   244.20
52-Week Low:   210.59

Was truly exciting this past week in Agri-Commodity markets. In first part of week
US corn futures for May and Dec moved above $4. However, on Thursday US
reported a strong labor number which resurrected the old, tired story of Federal
Reserve raising rates and the dollar soaring, neither of which is going to happen.
At the same time selling corn at those prices was to enticing. On Thursday
and Friday the grains were hit hard by selling. However, the important point is that
corn showed that it could go above $4.

Noteworthy was US pork carcass up 7% and world cotton up 6.5%.

Agri-Equities continue to have a good month, with Tier One Agri-Equities up 5.7%
for the month. Wilmar(Singapore) hit a new 52-week high. 67% of Agri-Equities
performing better than market. With NASDAQ 100 breaking down last week and
tech stocks crashing, we do expect money to flow into Agri-Equities this year.

Interim Comments to be mailed out Sunday, 24 April.

Following link is to an update of Investment Scoreboard 2016.

Investment Scoreboard 2016  

9 April 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   212.82   For week: +0.2%
200-Day Moving Average:   222.09
52 Week High:   244.2
52 Week Low:   210.6
One Year % Change:   -4.5%
Signal Oscillator:   21%   Oversold

Past week was better after the shock of the USDA Prospective Planting
report in the previous week. Most of the decline of our Agri-Food Price
Index in recent weeks has been due to US cash eggs for which prices have
collapsed more than 80%. US cash corn began to recover from the hit taken
during previous week. Maybe the market does not believe the corn acreage
estimate in the Prospective Planting report. WASDE will be out on Tuesday.
Market does not yet seem to fear that report, but the corn estimate
could scare some.  

However, more important as we go forward is that the dollar peaked
in January, as we talked about in the April letter. That development may
already be having a positive impact on U.S. grain exports. For the second
week we noticed an improvement in those exports. We expect U.S. grain
exports to do much better in the year ahead.

Stock market seemed to as the week passed shed the euphoria of the past
month. Agri-Equities tend to be weak at the beginning of the month and
quarter as money flows into the fantasy stocks still popular. Thus far in April,
60% of the Agri-Equities Tier One are performing better than the S&P 5000.
Noteworthy is Wilmar which hit a new 52-week high in Singapore this week.

25 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   218.50   -0.2% for week
200-Day Moving Average:   224.34
52 Week High:   244.2
52 Week Low:   210.6
One Year % Change:   -4.5%
Signal Oscillator:   51%   Neutral

Past week data, given the Good Friday holiday, was limited. Market activity
was also reduced due to that holday. On average, Agri-Commodity prices have
risen by 3.0% in the past four weeks. Most interesting is that grain prices
have refused to go down. That seems to have been due to two factors,
weakness in the dollar and expectations that USDA Prospective Planting report
will not be supply bullish/price bearish. That view will be tested on 12 April
when next WASDE is released.

Perhaps most interesting is what had not happened. Both US cash corn and
soybean prices have now been up for four weeks. Our measure of US cash
soybeans has been $9+ for three weeks. A different tone definitely. While dollar’s
slippage has not yet had a chance to have a real, on the ground effect, it does
seem to have improved attitudes.

Stock markets are again showing some signs of internal weakness. Both the
breadth measure, advances minus declines, and new highs minus new lows were
negative for the week. Agri-Equities continue to perform well. Thus far in March
Agri-Equities Tier One are up 6.3% vs. S&P 500 up 5.4% and NASDAQ
Composite +4.7. 87% of Agri-Equities are up this month.

For month to date, DAR +38%   BG +12%   Wilmar +11%   FMC +8%

18 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   218.99   +0.7% for week
200-Day Moving Average:   224.36
52 Week High:   244.2
52 Week Low:   210.6
One Year % Change:   -4.3%
Signal Oscillator:   56%   Neutral

On average, Agri-Commodity prices have risen by 2.2% in the past four
weeks. Several factors have contributed to that. Oil prices have risen.
Second, the dollar is falling against most currencies. The latter has had a strong
positive impact on psychology. While dollar’s slide has not yet had an impact
on U.S. export sales, hope that it will has developed.

In the past week, both world sugar and Malaysian palm oil hit new 52-week highs.
For the week, world sugar +5.6%, US broilers +4.8%,
Malaysian palm oil US$ +3.5%, Canola US$ +2.8%, and US cash corn +0.9%.

Stock markets continue to be rising dramatically, though no good reason exists for
that. Agri-Equities continue to perform well. Thus far in March Agri-Equities
Tier One are up 8.2% vs. S&P 500 up 6.1%

For month to date, DAR +39%   JBSAY +18%   BG +12%   Wilmar +11%

5 March 2015

Agri-Food Price Index:   214.84   +1.3% for week
200-Day Moving Average:   225.13
52 Week High:   244.2
52 Week Low:   210.6
One Year % Change:   -5.6%
Signal Oscillator:   16%   Oversold

Word seemed to turn positive for Agri-Commodity this past week. First,
price of oil appears to have found a bottom While we do not expect much from
oil prices, the rally has helped psychology. Second, and perhaps more important,
the dollar's rally has been broken. Brazilian real, for example, was screaming
upwards last week. Even Argentinian peso rallied. While that will not immediately
improve U.S. export situation, it is a move in the right direction.

For month-to-date: Agri-Equities +5.25   S&P 500 +3.5%   NASDAQ +3.5%
DAR +33%   KUB +12%   BG +10%   ADM +8%   FMC +8%

While only four trading days thus far in March, Agri-Equities are showing
unusual strength. The factors mentioned above that helped Agri-Commodity
prices have also helped the equities. Stocks we have mentioned favorably
include FMC, DE, & AGCO.

Our latest webcast.
To hear our latest webcast use this link:
Schmidt Webcast
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Island Earth