|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
28 August 2015
This weekend is a writing weekend as September issue goes
out on the 3rd. Will be back here next week.
22 August 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 230.00 -1.4% for week
Signal Oscillator: 0% Oversold
Weekly Oscillator: 0% Oversold
Only one adequate descriptor for market actions last week is not one we can say
print. Actually, until late in the week the index had been showing some strength, but
that was wiped out late in the week. As the week progressed the talk on China got
progressively worse, and emotions were clearly dominant. Will discuss China grain
policy in September letter, and not as bearish as is believed by many. U.S. cash
corn for the week actually ticked up slightly while U.S. cash soybeans were off
almost 5%. For the week: Butter +15% Eggs -11%
We also note that “noone” seems to believe the USDA estimate for U.S. corn
yields for harvest about to start. On the ground estimates by crop tours
continue to estimate 164+ bu/acre rather that USDA estimate of almost
69 bu/acre. A possibility that USDA may reduce estimate significantly
U.S. corn harvest estimate in next WASDE, Friday 9 Sep.
Combination of equity market collapse and “China is crashing” group think
were rough on the Agri-Equities. Big problem was DE about which we recently
expressed corn in recent letter, and what the company said. Sales of
Agri-Equipment will not improve in rest of the year and market did not like that
. In next month the Agri-Equities will be in deeply over sold territory.
Will talk about that in Interim Comments which go out Monday.
We have updated the sample newsletters available on the site.
8 August 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 233.61 -0.4% for week
Signal Oscillator: 12% Extremely Over Sold
52-Week High: 246.6
52-Week Low: 222.6
Agri-Food Price Index has now fully unwound the over bought condition.
Index is now positioned for a buy signal. With WASDE being released on
Wednesday Agri-Commodity markets could face some kind of surprise. Traders do
seem a little nervous about this report. For the week: U.S. corn +1.8% U.S.
soybeans +1.6% US$ Malaysian palm oil -6.5% US$ World sugar -3.9%
Equities, and that includes Agri-Equities, continue to an have unpleasant experience.
Month-to-date: Agri-Equities -1.8% S&P 500 -1.2% NASDAQ -1.7% That
said, Agri-Equities do seem to be slightly improving relative to the market.
For month-to-date: AGCO +4% DE +2%
25 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 236.6 -1.5% for week
Signal Oscillator: 62% Neutral
Excluding U.S. eggs, Signal Oscillator: 52%
Excluding U.S. eggs, Weekly Oscillator: 0%
The Street, near unanimously, concluded last week that Chinese economy
was crashing into oblivion. As a consequence, Chinese will buy NO
commodities of any kind. They will cease eating. With that set of brilliant thinking,
Street went on a rampage in commodities, selling them all. Reality could
be somewhat different. For example, China actually bought 300 thousand
tons of soybeans last week in the U.S.
U.S. egg prices, up 20% for week, returned to a new high as only now are laying
flocks starting to be rebuilt after the bird flu outbreak. If we exclude eggs,
the signal oscillator is weakening rapidly. Agri-Food Price Index had been
seriously over bought, and that conditions was due to be unwound.
13 of 16 Agri-Commodities down last week.
With China collapsing into oblivion, clearly all stocks doing business with or
benefitting from business with China were sold with gusto. In general stocks
were sold last week, but Agri-Equities were especially punished. For the
month-to-date Agri-Equities are down 4.9%, and that is creating some opportunities.
Some to look at include SPU, JBSAY, FMC, AGCO
18 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 240.1 -1.4 % for week
Last short-term high: 246.4
Signal Oscillator: 86%
Weekly Oscillator: 61%
Agri-Food Price Index had been over bought for several weeks as U.S. cash
corn hit 52-week high and other grains followed it higher. Grain prices were
due to soften after a strong run. We do note that the supply bulls/price bears
are still alive. U.S. wheat low was week ending 1 May, almost 3 months ago,
while U.S. soybean price low was week of 22 May, almost two months past.
Move of grain prices starting to worry animal producers.
Equity markets were fixated on the GOOG and TWTR. With GOOG adding $65
billion to market capitalization in one day we can safely say that “irrational
exuberance” has returned to the market. At the same time, per the gurus on
the Street, the Chinese economy is collapsing. None of the 1.2 billion people
in China will eat as their stock market is cratering.
Preferences: SPU DAR Wilmar International FMC JBSAY AGCO
11 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 160.8 -0.3% for week
Signal Oscillator: 97% Over Bought
New 52-week Highs
U.S. cash corn
U.S. cash sorghum
Canadian $ Canola
U.S. cash corn broke above $4 in the previous week, as we have long said it would.
Test was on Friday when USDA released latest WASDE. Sorry price bears, you
were wrong. Less corn and soybeans in U.S. this year due to weather issues
and strong demand. We have not read one report that was optimistic on
weather for crops in fields. While we would be cautious in expecting prices to rise
significantly, higher grain prices are in our future.
While the above is bullish for the Agri-Equities, the Street has decided that China is
about to collapse. That ridiculous thinking was hard on the Agri-Equities.
We do observe that the 1.2+billion Chinese are likely to continue eating every day.
They will, however, buy far less toy watches from AAPL.
For the month-to-date: Agri-Equities: -2.9% CALM +4% MON +2% SYT +2%
WE like the following: Wilmar International, DAR, FMC, JBSAY, SPU
Interim Comments go out on Tuesday.
4 July 2015
Agri-Food Price Index: 244.2 +1.6% for week
Signal Oscillator: 85% Over Bought
U.S. cash corn went over $4/bu last week, and that is great news. Test of that
movement will be on Friday, 10 July, when USDA releases next WASDE.
While doubtful anything meaningful will be in that report, it could further
discourage the supply bulls/price bears. But, with U.S. cash corn closing
out week at a 52-week high, traders may be increasingly
reluctant to short corn.
For the week: Corn +9% Sorghum +7% Sugar +7%
Rice +5% Soybeans +3%
For the year-to-date:
Agri-Equities +11.1% S&P 500 +0.9% NASDAQ +5.8%
Agri-Equities are likely to continue performing better than
the techno/junk the Street is pushing.
July issued of Agri-Food Value View emailed on Friday, 3 July.
Is your portfolio ready for PEAK FOOD?
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link: Peak Food
|PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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|PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two