|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
10 December 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 230.68
1 Week % Change: + 5.4%
4 Week % Change: +11.4%
52 Week % Change: + 6.8%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.22 +15.1
52-Week High: 232.29 - 1%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +19%
A New Bull Market?
In last month Agri-Commodity prices have rallied strongly. Agri-Food Price Index
is now up 19% from the 52-week low in first week of October. That rise is
approaching the generally accepted 20% that is assumed to indicate a new bull
market. On average the individual Agri-Commodity prices are up 31% from their
lows. 8 of the 18, or 44%, Agri-Commodity prices are up more than 20%,
even ignoring rounding.
All of this is extremely positive, and suggests that Agri-Commodity prices are
attempting to birth a new bull market.
For 2016 to date:
S&P 500: +11%
NASDAQ: + 9%
Clearly, Agri-Equities had done far better than most other equity markets.
However, we do admit to being worried about the impact of a U.S. interest rate
increase on Wednesday.
Web cast at top of page have been updated.
19 November 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 204.4
1 Week % Change: - 1.3%
4 Week % Change: + 5.6%
52 Week % Change: - 9.7%
200 Day Moving Average: 214.7 -10.3
52-Week High: 232.29 -12%
52-Week Low: 193.39 + 6%
Major Grain Index($): 95.91
1 Week Change: + 2.4%
Low( 7 Oct 16): 89.31 + 7%
Immediately above is our Major Grain Index($). Last week that index of US
cash corn, soybean, and wheat rose by 2.4%. Major grains have been strong for
several weeks. Export numbers continue especially strong. Concern at present
time is the dollar rally since the Trump victory. No economic justification for
that rally exists. That said, the potential damage from juvenile traders running
rampant in foreign currency markets is hard to quantify. Dollar rally will likely
exhaust itself by 14 December FOMC meeting.
For the year-to-date:
Tier Two Agri-Equities: +12.3%
Tier One Agri-Equities: +10.0%
S&P 500: + 6.7%
NASDAQ: + 6.3%
BG + 9%
AGU + 6%
5 November 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 212.15
1 Week % Change: - 0.4%
4 Week % Change: + 9.7%
52 Week % Change: - 5.3%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.43 -3.3
52-Week High: 232.29 - 9%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +10%
As we explain in November letter, Agri-Food Price Index seems to have
broken out of the inverted parabolic pattern. Up move of almost ten percent
in past four weeks is very impressive. In U.S. cash market none of the major
grains, corn, soybeans, or HRW, have made a weekly closing low in 5 weeks.
US cash oats hit new 52-week high, and that is a good sign.
In animal proteins, only pork/hogs at low.
What region of the world is the fastest growing corn import market?
Answer in November letter, and here next week.
For the year-to-date:
Agri-Equities: + 8.6%
Tier One Agri-Equities: + 8.5%
Tier Two Agri-Equities: + 6.7%
S&P 500: + 2.0%
NASDAQ: + 0.8%
ADM + 8%
ZTS + 5%
S&P 500 - 2%
NASDAQ - 3%
24 October 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 208.32
1 Week % Change: + 6.2%
4 Week % Change: + 2.7%
52 Week % Change: - 6.8%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.62 -7.3
52-Week High: 232.29 -10%
52-Week Low: 193.39 + 8%
Increasingly being accepted is that the major US grains have made their lows.
US cash corn bottomed 9 weeks ago while US cash soybeans appear to have
done so 3 weeks ago. HRW US cash wheat may have broken out. Even hard
core, ill informed bears are starting to acknowledge that reality.
Animal proteins have been the weak sector but even there some improvement
is seen. That shift has started in those animal proteins with shortest production
cycle. Spot US eggs have doubled in the past 2 week. US broilers appear to have
begun a seasonal upswing. Hogs and pork may be trying to do so. But yet, no
hope has appeared in beef.
Agri-Equities continue to have good year, again performing better than market
in October. 60% of Agri-Equities have performed better than the market thus
far in 2016. For the year to date:
Tier Two: +12.1%
Tier One: + 8.0%
Agri-Equities: + 9.3%
S&P 500: + 5.0%
NASDAQ: + 4.8%
Interim Comments out on Monday.
Do the improvement in the grains, we are going to offer untill 27 October
a $50 credit to any new subscriber. Simply subscribe using one of the
above buttons and we will then credit you with $50.
16 October 2016
WASDE had no food for bears.
US cash corn bottom seems confirmed.
But, any rise will be slow.
Export reports now more important.
We have two new web cast upper right. Top one is our debut on
Korelin Economics. Two parts. First on Gold and Second on Agriculture.
Second web cast is about recent action in dollar, and that has been
a problem recently. Hurricane and week of writing and recording
has me behind but will get back on schedule.
A web cast on Gold & Agri 5 Dec 2016
To hear web cast:
Gold & Agri
|PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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|PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
|PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Recent web cast with Korelin Economics
8 November . On Agriculture